Crude Oil Slips as Strong Dollar and Inventory Surge Impact Prices

Crude oil prices dropped sharply on the strong US dollar. It hit a high of $72.59 yesterday and currently trading around $71.33.

Donald Trump's recent election victory is expected to have a big impact on tensions in the Middle East. His administration is likely to strongly support Israel, especially with ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Trump’s win, seeing it as a sign of renewed partnership between the U.S. and Israel, which could lead to increased military actions against Hamas and other enemies.

 The latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude oil inventories went up by 2.1 million barrels for the week ending November 1, 2024. This increase was higher than what analysts expected, as they had predicted an increase of around 1.8 million barrels.

The US dollar index remains bullish, as does the US treasury yield, which is generally negative for commodities. Major resistance is at $72.60; breaching this level could push prices up to $73/$73.69. A significant trend reversal would only occur if prices rise above $80.

Near-term support is around $69.70; if this level is broken, targets could drop to $68.70/$68.45, $67, or $66. According to the 4-hour chart indicators, the ADX is bearish and the CCI is neutral at 50.

It may be wise to consider selling on rallies between $71.50 and $71.55, with a stop loss set at around $72.50 and a take-profit target of $67.