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UBS forecasts a surge in copper mining equipment orders as early as 2025, with activity accelerating through 2026 and beyond—creating strong tailwinds for European mining equipment manufacturers. The investment bank singled out Metso (OTC:MXTOF) as its top pick, citing its significant exposure to copper and sensitivity to the mining capex cycle.
Copper now accounts for over 40% of global mining capital expenditure, making it the key growth driver for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). UBS emphasized the structural copper demand outlook, fueled by global electrification trends, noting that supply constraints will require heavy investments in new mining projects.
While exact order timing remains unclear, UBS explained that large equipment orders typically follow the final investment decision (FID) phase rather than waiting until mine production begins. The 2023 orders for Pakistan’s $6 billion Reko Diq copper project illustrate this pattern—contributing 14% of Weir’s and 11% of Metso’s 2024 mineral equipment intake.
Industry sentiment supports UBS's bullish view, though some players remain cautious. Danish equipment maker FLSmidth anticipates order growth beginning in 2026, based on feedback from engineering contractors. Still, UBS expects a multi-year wave of orders from large-scale copper developments, particularly between 2026 and 2028.
Driven by electrification and constrained copper supply, the mining equipment sector is positioned for a sustained demand cycle. UBS believes companies like Metso are poised to benefit significantly as capital spending ramps up across new copper projects worldwide.
