China’s Economy Stumbles: Growth Slows, Stimulus Calls Grow Louder

Industrial Output Hits the Brakes

China's August 2025 industrial production grew by just 5.1% year-over-year, falling short of the 5.75% expectation and decelerating from July's 5.7%. This marks the weakest growth since earlier in the year, driven by broad-based slowdowns in manufacturing, equipment, and high-tech sectors. Sluggish domestic demand and persistent external pressures have compounded the challenges, signaling deeper issues in the manufacturing landscape.

Consumer Spending and Investments Falter

Retail sales in August rose a mere 3.4% year-over-year, missing the 3.82% forecast and slowing from July's 3.7%, continuing a streak of sub-4% growth amid low consumer confidence. While monthly activity edged up 0.17%, the overall trend remains weak. Fixed asset investment for January-August grew only 0.5%, well below the 1.29% expectation and down from the prior 1.6%, with real estate plunging 12.9% and marking the slowest pace in years.

Policy Alarms Ring as Headwinds Intensify

The dismal data amplifies calls for stimulus to boost demand, amid US trade tensions, property woes, and slowing exports. Markets reacted warily, heightening concerns for Q4 momentum. However, government trade-in programs provided some bright spots, with furniture and appliances surging 18.6% and 14.3%, offering potential levers for recovery.