China new loans rebound in Aug; RMB loan growth likely to slow in Q4

China’s new loans denominated in yuan terms rebounded during the month of August, largely beating market consensus. However, the loan growth in terms of renminbi is likely to slow down in the last quarter of the year, as a possibility of a rise in corporate loan demand remains muted in the near term.

Mortgage loans remain the major driver of loan growth, based on booming housing market and weak load demand from corporates. The rapid growth of M1 money supply indicates corporates’ preference of holding cash rather than investment. This is consistent with the slowing trend in fixed asset investment by the private sector.

New Yuan Loans rebounded to RMB948.7 billion from July’s RMB463.6 billion, compared to market expectations of RMB750 billion. Household loans contributed to 71 percent of total new loans. The loans extended to non-FI entities (including corporates and other entities) rebounded to RMB120.9 billion, taking 13 percent of total loan growth.

Broad M2 money supply (M2) also grew by a more-than-expected 11.4 percent from a year earlier, according to central bank data on Wednesday, quickening from July's 10.2 percent rise, which was the weakest pace in 15 months.

Further, outstanding yuan loans grew at 13 percent by month-end on an annual basis. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new lending of 750 billion yuan, with outstanding loans seen rising 12.9 percent, and money supply seen up 10.4 percent.

Total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB1.47 trillion, also stronger than market expectayion of RMB900 billion. Bank loans contributed to 54 percent of the monthly TSF. Corporate bond net issuance recorded RMB330.6 billion, while Banker’s Acceptance Draft (BAD) remained on a negative trend at RMB-37.7 billion. Also, the divergence between M1 and M2 money supply growth remained stable, where M2 grew by 11.4 percent y/y while M1 surged by 25.3 percent.