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Europe is still in short-term crisis mode over Ukraine and lacks a vision for its post-war identity 
The recession probability in the United Kingdom over the next 12 months reached a historical high of 40 percent. It has jumped 22 percent since June.
However, a lot will depend on how the Brexit is handled and on the trade deals. Confidence alone unlikely to trigger a recession.
Chart courtesy: Fergal O'Brien, Economics Editor Bloomberg
