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Change to the Turkish Central Bank’s MPC composition seen in mid 2016

The Central Bank of Turkey's willingness to tighten its monetary policies in line with rising market volatility is still questionable, as the CBRT's policy meeting could not raise the market's perception of the CBT's credibility much.

The ongoing concerns about the possible replacement of the bank's governor with someone who is potentially more biased to the government's stance on monetary policy, changes to the CBT's MPC composition are expected by mid 2016.

Turkish current account will be helped by the declining oil prices, however, the country still has considerable external financing requirements reflected by its large external debt stock.  

Capital outflows have been surpassing the improvement seen in the current account. Moreover, the central bank's FX reserves have decreased and continue to remain at low levels on a net foreign asset basis relative to its peers.

 

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