Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle "Not Dead": Analysts Eye October 2026 as the Ultimate Bottom

Former NASA scientist and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen is doubling down on his belief that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still quite active and that the flagship currency is following almost precisely its historical trajectory. Having reached an all-time high of almost $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a classic bear-market phase and lost more than 40% to trade about $73,831 as of April 2026. Roughly one year after the peak, Cowen's base case predicts the bottom will come in October 2026, so matching exactly the length of the previous two downturns and the 912–922-day post-halving period that has historically defined cycle lows.

Although an earlier capitulation in May 2026 is still a tail-risk scenario, Cowen argues it would call for a level of panic-selling far over what is normally seen in midterm years, therefore favoring the gradual slide toward fall. The analyst points out that 2026 matches his "midterm year" framework, a period typically marked by reduced returns, uneven volatility, and no new all-time highs as the market moves through a disbelief phase. A major difference of this cycle, he continues, has been the notable lack of a raging altcoin craze; the October 2025 top is more like the more muted 2019 top than the ecstatic blow-offs experienced in earlier cycles.

October's theory by Cowen is not at all unique. Fellow analyst Alphractal is aiming late September or early October; CryptoQuant's models show a high-probability bottom window between September and November; seasoned trader Peter Brandt, however, cautions of a possible washout to $60,000 by the third quarter before any significant recovery takes hold. Though the past year's narrative of spot ETFs and institutional adoption has been life-altering, Cowen rejects the premature "death of the four-year cycle" debate since Bitcoin is just following its long-established rhythm. The roadmap advises patient investors to be ready for a sluggish, months-long downturn before the "Value Zone" may start in October 2026.