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Banxico likely to be more tolerant to additional MXN weakness

Mexican central bank's main focus was on monetary conditions, and how they effect the inflation. These are the main determinants for its monetary policy stance.

Market participants broadly expect a hike in US Federal Reserve's interest rates in December, hence, Banxico is also expected to rise 25bp in its December meeting.

"We have been arguing since the summer that too much is priced in the TIIE curve, as it seems very unlikely that Banxico will mirror one-for-one any FOMC move", says Barclays in a research note. 

This view has been based on the stability of the FX market, limited pass-through, stubbornly low inflation, a mediocre economic recovery and stable holdings of MXN local bonds by foreigners.

Banxico is comfortable with the current behavior of the MXN, as signaled by the recent relaxation in the parameters of intervention by the FX Commission. 

"For us, the timing of the announcement was of particular relevance, as the FOMC's December meeting is less than a month away. We think there are four compelling reasons for Banxico to be more tolerant to additional MXN weakness and keep its policy rate unchanged", added Barclays.

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