BHP Posts Record Iron Ore Output as China Pricing Pressures Loom

BHP Group (ASX: BHP), the world’s largest mining company, reported record-high iron ore production for the first six months of its current fiscal year, highlighting the strength of its core operations even as it warned of potential pricing pressure from China and rising project costs in Canada.

In an update released Tuesday, BHP said its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations produced 146.6 million tonnes of iron ore on a 100% basis in the half-year to December 31. This marked a 1% increase compared with the same period last year and represented the highest half-year output on record. Quarterly production for the three months to December reached 76.3 million tonnes, up 4% year-on-year, supported by strong operational performance and improved supply chain reliability.

Iron ore shipments also reached a record level during the half-year period, while BHP reaffirmed its full-year iron ore production guidance of between 251 million tonnes and 262 million tonnes. The miner achieved an average realized iron ore price of $84.71 per wet metric tonne during the period. However, BHP cautioned that ongoing negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group could result in lower realized prices, reflecting shifting dynamics in global iron ore contract terms. The company said it continues to optimize product placement and maintain operational flexibility to manage potential impacts on pricing.

Beyond iron ore, BHP upgraded its annual copper production outlook to a range of 1.9 million to 2.0 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 1.8 million to 2.0 million tonnes. Copper production for the half-year totaled 984.1 thousand tonnes, broadly unchanged from the prior year.

BHP also flagged higher costs at its Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Canada, estimating total investment at $8.4 billion, up from the previous guidance range of $7.0 billion to $7.4 billion. The increase reflects higher inflation, design and scope changes, and lower-than-expected productivity. First production at Jansen is now expected in mid-2027, underscoring the long-term nature of BHP’s diversification strategy.