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Australia’s mining and energy export revenues are projected to decline over the next two years, pressured by global economic weakness, falling commodity prices, and potential trade barriers, according to the latest quarterly report from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The report warns that global uncertainty—intensified by U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies—is dampening investment sentiment and dragging down commodity demand. In April, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most nations, temporarily suspending higher rates for select partners. Although he claimed a new trade deal with China, Australia’s largest export destination, no details were disclosed.
Australia’s export earnings are estimated at A$385 billion for the 2024–25 fiscal year, down from A$415 billion in 2023–24. Projections suggest a further decline to A$369 billion in 2025–26 and A$352 billion in 2026–27. Iron ore, the country’s top export, is forecast to fall from A$116 billion this year to A$97 billion by 2026–27, due to rising global supply. LNG revenues are also expected to dip under similar market conditions.
However, gold is emerging as a bright spot, with projected earnings of A$56 billion next year—making it Australia’s third-largest export. Rising prices and volumes for gold, copper, and lithium are helping to cushion the overall decline. Lithium export revenue is expected to rebound from A$4.6 billion in 2024 to A$6.6 billion by 2027, following a recent price drop.
Resources Minister Madeleine King noted that despite headwinds, gains in critical minerals are softening the blow from weaker iron ore, coal, and gas prices. Still, the report emphasized that the global outlook remains unusually uncertain.
