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Australian CPI likely to rise by 0.5 pct q/q in Q1 this year, says ANZ Research

Australia’s consumer price inflation is expected to rise by 0.5 percent q/q for the first quarter of this year, with core inflation also rising by the same figure, according to a recent report from ANZ Research.

The country’s Q4 inflation print was a touch below expectations for the headline, at 0.6 percent q/q, but in line with market expectations for core, with a 0.4 percent q/q rise for both the weighted median and trimmed mean.

Overall, it was a solid result, particularly given the drag from the re-weighting. There were few surprises in the data, with headline boosted by fuel, tobacco, domestic travel, and fruit. The retail competition was still evident with a range of retail prices falling in the quarter. Overall the data suggest that inflationary pressures have stabilized just below the policy band and should rise gradually over time.

"We see this data as consistent with our view that the RBA will look to raise rates this year, with a focus on bringing the real cash rate back to zero. We continue to look for the first of two rate hikes in May, although this is based on our forecast that the WPI prints a 0.5 percent q/q rise for Q4 on 22 February," the report added.

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May 22 03:30 UTC Released

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-1.28 1.76

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