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Australia’s labour market delivered mixed signals in August as employment growth comfortably exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly five years amid increased participation in the workforce.
Employment increased by 39,500 in August, according to data released Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Economists had forecast a gain of 21,500 jobs, following a revised decline of 15,900 in July.
However, the improvement was concentrated in part-time positions. Part-time employment jumped by 45,600, while full-time jobs declined by 6,300.
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.5%, surpassing expectations for an unchanged reading and reaching its highest level since November 2021. The participation rate also increased to 67.1% from 66.9%, indicating that more Australians entered the labour force.
ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said a larger-than-usual share of people previously outside the workforce moved into unemployment during August.
ANZ economists described the Australian jobs report as mixed but said it remained consistent with a gradual cooling in labour market conditions. A less restrictive jobs market could eventually ease wage and inflation pressures.
The latest employment figures arrive ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Sept. 29 monetary policy meeting. The RBA has increased its cash rate by 75 basis points this year to 4.35%, leaving rates unchanged at its August meeting.
ANZ said the August labour data did not change its forecast for a 25-basis-point RBA rate hike in September, followed by another increase of the same size in November.
Earlier this week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said unemployment may need to move into a 4.5%-5% range to help contain inflation. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also indicated that another interest rate increase could be necessary.
Markets were pricing an 86% probability of an RBA rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Despite the stronger-than-expected employment gain, the Australian dollar weakened slightly, with AUD/USD falling 0.1% to around 0.7036.
