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Australia’s preliminary estimate for the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is for a rise of just 0.1 percent q/q. This result continues the recent see-saw pattern in GDP growth, with growth outcomes of +0.8 percent, -0.5 percent, and +1.1 percent in Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2016 respectively. A 0.1 percent rise for the quarter would see annual GDP growth drop to 1.5 percent, which would be the lowest rate since the September quarter 2009.
Despite the very weak retail sales data, consumer spending growth is expected to have been supported by stronger growth in spending on services and look for a solid, if unspectacular, rise of 0.6 percent q/q.
Broadly, consumer spending growth is likely to underwhelm over the next couple of years, reflecting a growing realisation by households that softer wage growth may be a more permanent state of affairs. High levels of household debt as well as a likely slowdown in house price growth are only likely to reinforce this trend.
"Our focus will be on the wages and household consumption numbers. The GDP measure of wages was surprisingly weak last quarter, and we expect a bounce, although even this would see annual growth in the wage rate remain in negative territory," ANZ Research commented in its latest report.
