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Asian stock markets drifted lower on Monday as investor sentiment weakened following disappointing economic data from Japan and growing caution ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report. Market participants also scaled back expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December, adding further pressure to risk assets.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX both declined 0.6% after new data revealed that the Japanese economy contracted 1.8% in the July–September quarter. Although the decline was steep, it was still better than forecasts of a 2.5% drop. The contraction was driven mainly by soft private consumption and weaker exports, which were hampered by higher U.S. trade tariffs. Strong capital expenditure provided some cushion, helping limit deeper losses in Japanese equities. While the GDP data diminished expectations of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan, analysts at Capital Economics noted that persistent inflation and underlying growth may still support the possibility of a hike in January.
Stocks in China and Japan also faced additional pressure from a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.7%, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.5% after Beijing issued a travel advisory warning its citizens about visiting Japan. The tensions escalated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a “survival-threatening situation,” prompting a strong response from China. The advisory led to a notable selloff in Japanese tourism shares.
Broader Asian markets were cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which investors widely expect to be another blockbuster quarter. However, concerns over the tech sector's stretched valuations intensified after filings revealed billionaire Peter Thiel sold his nearly $100 million Nvidia stake. South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the regional trend, jumping 1.7% thanks to strong gains in semiconductor leaders SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, supported by reports of declining chip inventories that could boost global prices. Elsewhere, Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.3%, Singapore’s Straits Times Index eased 0.1%, and India’s Nifty 50 futures traded flat near the key 26,000 level.
