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Asian currencies saw slight gains on Thursday after recent losses, but market sentiment remained cautious due to rising global trade tensions and fears of a U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the dollar steadied following a mild rebound, despite softer-than-expected U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for February. While some CPI components suggested inflation was cooling, others indicated it remained sticky, keeping traders on edge.
A surge in U.S. Treasury yields supported the dollar, as concerns grew over a potential recession and heightened trade tariffs under President Donald Trump. The greenback also held firm ahead of producer price index (PPI) data, which could provide further insight into inflation trends.
The Japanese yen remained stable after reaching a five-month high against the dollar, buoyed by safe-haven demand and expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike, possibly as soon as May. The BOJ is expected to maintain rates at its upcoming meeting.
Other Asian currencies moved within tight ranges. The Chinese yuan edged up 0.1% amid anticipation of Beijing’s stimulus measures to counter Trump’s tariffs. The Australian dollar, South Korean won, and Singapore dollar remained mostly unchanged. The Indian rupee rose 0.1% after inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% threshold, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts.
Despite a softer CPI reading, inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs persist, with new 25% duties on steel and aluminum taking effect this week. Markets now await the PPI report for further inflation signals, with the Federal Reserve set to meet next week. A softer inflation outlook could pave the way for additional rate cuts.
