Asian Currencies Edge Higher as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Asian currencies posted modest gains on Thursday, lifted by a weaker U.S. dollar after disappointing ADP payroll data heightened expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The greenback slipped as the soft labor report signaled deeper cracks in the U.S. job market, with attention now turning to the upcoming nonfarm payrolls data for clearer direction.

The Japanese yen weakened slightly, with USDJPY up 0.1%, following underwhelming wage growth figures that cast doubt on consumer spending strength and Japan’s economic outlook for 2025. Meanwhile, South Korea’s won firmed, with USDKRW down 0.1%, after revised GDP data showed a smaller-than-expected Q1 contraction. Political sentiment also improved after a liberal party victory in the recent presidential election.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.1% against the greenback after April trade data revealed weaker-than-expected performance in key commodity exports. The Singapore dollar traded flat, with USDSGD largely unchanged.

In India, the rupee edged lower ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s widely anticipated interest rate decision. The RBI is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, its third cut since February, as the central bank looks to support economic growth amid easing inflation. However, analysts remain cautious, projecting the rupee to underperform other Asian currencies in 2025 due to persistent risk aversion.

Markets remain cautious amid global uncertainty, especially surrounding U.S. trade policy under President Trump. His latest move to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% and a missed deadline for trade deal proposals continue to fuel investor unease. Traders are watching closely for developments in a potential Trump-Xi call, which could shift market sentiment.