Market Roundup
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Sep) 7.9%, -8.7% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Sep) 1.1%, 3.3% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Sep) 3.938B, 3.930B forecast,1.111B previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct) 51.50, 51.30 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Oct) 53.1, 52.4 forecast,53.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 3.0% forecast, -4.3% previous
•07:00 German Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) -4.20% previous
•07:45 French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3) -0.1% forecast 0.2% previous
•08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Oct) 2.8% previous
•08:00 Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Oct) 3.0% forecast 3.0% previous
•08:00 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 3.4% previous
•08:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) 49.8 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Oct) 46.9 forecast, 46.2 previous
•08:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) 42.9 previous
•08:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) 46.0 previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 1.0% forecast ,1.0% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% forecast ,0.1% previous
•12:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 4.00% forecast ,4.00% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:30 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
• 12:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday, supported by improved risk sentiment that boosted demand for riskier assets, including the single currency. Looking ahead, market focus will shift to a fresh set of Eurozone data releases and central bank commentary that could shape sentiment across European assets. Germany is set to publish its Industrial Production and HCOB Construction PMI data, providing key insights into the health of Europe’s largest economy. These figures will be followed by Eurozone-wide Retail Sales and Construction PMI reports, which are expected to shed light on regional consumer spending and business activity trends.Meanwhile, speeches from several European Central Bank officials including Schnabel, De Guindos, Buch, and Lane are on the agenda. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1462(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: erling edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due at 1200 GMT. While markets widely expect the Bank to keep rates steady at 4%, the policy committee remains divided, making the outcome potentially close.A 25-basis-point rate cut is already priced in for early next year, suggesting that even if rates are held, the tone of the meeting could lean dovish, signaling future easing.The pound traded steady at $1.3054 on Thursday, having recovered slightly from a seven-month low of $1.3011 hit overnight.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163(Nov 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as stronger Australian trade figures supported Australian dollar. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened in September, driven by a surge in gold exports amid rising prices, while imports saw a modest increase.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the goods trade surplus rose to A$3.94 billion ($2.56 billion) in September from a revised A$1.11 billion in August, broadly matching market expectations for a A$4 billion surplus.Exports climbed 7.9%, led by a 62.2% surge in non-monetary gold. The bullion's price rose a staggering 12% in the month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6603(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6655(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6466(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Thursday as steady wage growth in Japan reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will stay on its tightening path.Government data showed Japan’s real wages fell for the ninth straight month in September, with inflation outpacing nominal pay gains. Real wages, a key measure of household purchasing power, dropped 1.4% year-on-year, while nominal wages rose 1.9% to 297,145 yen ($1,971), following a revised 1.3% increase in August.The BOJ left interest rates unchanged at its October 29–30 meeting, with Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that the 2026 wage outlook will play a critical role in determining the timing of the next rate hike.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rebounded on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s sharp selloff, as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data encouraged investors to return to markets hovering near record highs.
Hang Seng was up 1.56% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded up 1.31% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.47%
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday as stronger U.S. private payrolls data dampened hopes for a December Fed rate cut.
Spot gold lost 0.3% to $3,971.08 per ounce by 0144 GMT.U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 0.3% to $3,979.70 per ounce
Oil prices were largely flat early on Thursday, after settling at two-week lows in the previous session as pressure from weaker demand and a global oil glut continued to weigh on the market.
Brent crude futures were up 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $63.54 a barrel at 0127 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were flat at $59.60.
