- CFTC - USD longs hit lowest level in more than a year, JPY and EUR shorts pared, market now net long GBP, net short CHF, AUD and NZD shorts up too.
- BAML flow data - Cash king for first time in 25 years.
- Retiring US House Speaker Boehner - Will avoid government shutdown, slams hard-line conservatives as false prophets.
- IMF Lagarde - Will likely pare global growth forecasts.
- Victorious Catalan separatists claim mandate to break with Spain.
- EU 'ring of friends' turns into ring of fire.
- RBNZ surplus NZ$624 mln in FY '14/15, second largest gain, FX helped.
- NZ Q3 employee confidence index 99.3, lowest in three years, Q2 102.8.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden August retail sales, +0.1% m/m eyed; last +0.5% m/m, +5.9% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden August trade balance; last SEK300 mln surplus.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy September consumer confidence index, 108.7 eyed; last 109.0.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy September business confidence index, 102.7 eyed; last 102.5.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August personal income, +0.4% m/m eyed; last +0.4%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August personal consumption, +0.3% m/m eyed; last +0.3%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August PCE price index; last +0.1% m/m, +0.3% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US August core, +0.1% m/m eyed; last +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y.
- (1000ET/1400 GMT) US August pending home sales, +0.5% m/m eyed; last +0.5%.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) US September Dallas Fed manufacturing business index; last -15.8.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) US August Dallas Fed PCE index; last +1.3%.
Key Events Ahead
- Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan market holidays.
- N/A Paris conference on financial regulation, various speakers.
- N/A France E3.6-4/1-1.4/1.4-1.8 bln 3/6/12-month BTF note auctions.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) ECB Lautenschlager speech at Milan banking conference.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) ECB/Buba Weidmann speech in Frankfurt.
- (0745 ET/1145 GMT) NY Fed Dudley speech.
- (1330 ET/1730 GMT) Chicago Fed Evans speech at Marquette University.
- (1700 ET/2100 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech at UCLA.
FX Recap
EURUSD: We have a data-empty EUR calendar to kick-off a fresh trading week ahead, with the BOE and the Fed officials speeches' expected to keep EUR, GBP traders busy. Moody's Investors Service confirmed Greece's sovereign bond rating at Caa3 (junk rating, two steps above default) over the weekend but upgraded the outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' after the September 20 general elections. Pair is supported below 1.1200 levels. It made intraday high at 1.1214 and low at 1.1180. Looking ahead, we have a data-filled New York session with the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index on the cards. Also, pending home sales and personal spending data will be reported ahead of the US open. Markets are expecting an unchanged reading for the PCE index (0.1% previous). Besides, New York Fed President William Dudley is due to discuss interest-rate increases and inflation expectations in an interview conducted by WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1560 levels.
USDJPY: Today is quite start of the week. Pair is supported just above 120.00 levels. Pair made intraday high at 120.59 and low at 120.22 levels. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 1.01% to 17,699.90 points within the first hour of trade on Monday, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge slipped 0.55% to 1,445.81 points, with more than 1,000 shares on the index trading without the right to the next dividend. Looking ahead, market will focus on US macroeconomic data for the further movement. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels.
GBPUSD: After bottoming out in the 1.5134 neighbourhood on last week, spot has still supported below 1.5200 levels, amidst empty docket or scheduled events in the UK economy. BOE MPC Member Cunliffe is due to participate in a panel discussion about financial regulation at the Banque de France Conference, in Paris. While FOMC member Daniel Tarullo is also scheduled to speak at the same event. Monday's data highlight will come during the US session when the Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release the Core PCE price index for August, which is expected to have grown 0.1% month-on-month. The PCE index is widely accepted as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected core PCE inflation reading would add to speculation that the Fed will lift-off in October. Fed New York President William Dudley is due to speak during the US session, which will shed more light on the Fed's monetary policy stance. Pair made intraday high at 1.5209 and low at 1.5178 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5185 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels.
NZDUSD: The kiwi extended last week's strong finish and rose for the fourth session in a row on Monday, helped by comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler who said that New Zealand's economy has performed better than many advanced economies in recent years. The only economic indicator from New Zealand on Monday was the Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index for the September quarter, which came in at 99.3, its lowest in three years, down from 102.8 in the June quarter. A figure above 100 signals confidence, while a reading below 100 indicates pessimism. The NZD/USD was seen 0.20% higher to $0.6389, some 150 pips above last week's lows below $0.6240 seen on Wednesday. It made intraday high at 0.6402 and low at 0.6357 levels. Market now awaits US macroeconomic data for the further direction. Initial support is seen at 0.6195 and resistance at 0.6511 levels.
AUDUSD: The Australian dollar slides victim to a stronger greenback on start of the new week, following some fairly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. It made intraday high at 0.7036 and low at 0.0.7008 levels. Looking ahead for the day, markets focus on US data due later today. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7245 levels.
Equity Recap
Hong Kong and Korea markets were shut due to public holidays.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 1.01% to 17,699.90 points within the first hour of trade on Monday, while Tokyo's broader Topix gauge slipped 0.55% to 1,445.81 points, with more than 1,000 shares on the index trading without the right to the next dividend.
China's benchmark Shanghai Composite opened 0.22% lower at 3,085.57 points on Monday morning.
The benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.65% to 5,075.00 points in Sydney, with Australia's biggest lenders supporting the index.
New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index was little down at 5,685.56 points this afternoon in Wellington.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes up 1.24 pct at 5,104.60.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closes down 1.32 pct at 17,645.11
Treasury Recap
BOJ offers to lend trln of JGBs on spot basis through 9/29 as a secondary source of JGBs.
10-year US treasury yield at 2.144 percent vs US close of 2.168 percent on Friday.
Thailand 20 bln baht, 28-day Treasury bill average accepted yield 1.49720 pct.
New Zealand government bonds were mostly steady.
Australian government bond futures were firmer, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 98.140. The 10-year contract also added 1 tick to 97.2850.
Commodity Recap
Gold got off to a quiet start to the week on Monday, struggling to recover from the previous session's losses as investors worried over the timing of a U.S. interest rate hike. Spot gold was little changed at $1,146.70 an ounce by 0040 GMT. The metal had dropped 0.7 percent on Friday after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank would begin to raise rates this year.
Oil was trading lower on Monday, with analysts citing the weak economic outlook and poor performance in China as the main reasons for prices going lower. Futures for WTI dropped 0.96% to trade at $45.26 per barrel, while Brent futures were traded 0.84% lower at $48.19 per barrel.
