Market Roundup
- NZ Q3 GDP +1.1% q/q, +3.5% y/y, +0.9% and +3.7% eyed, Q3 annual average +3.0% y/y, +3.2% eyed, expenditure based GDP +1.4% q/q, consumer, bldg boom cited.
- NZ Q3 current account deficit NZ$4.891 bln, NZ$5.015 bln eyed, year-to-Sept deficit NZ$7.48 bln, NZ$7.58 bln eyed, current account -2.9% of GDP, -3% eyed.
- UK December GFK consumer confidence index -7, -8 eyed, Nov -8, still some gloom over looming inflation in ’17, Brexit talks.
- UK car production hits 12-year high in November, still month to go, 1.61 mln units, ’15 1.59 mln – SMMT.
- ‘Death by China’ author to lead Trump trade office, China hawk Peter Navarro to lead new White House National Trade Council – Financial Times.
- Donald Trump’s trade team has based analysis on remarkably silly mistake- Vox Media.
- Japan Inc rushing to reap gains from weak yen – Nikkei.
- Japan plans record Y97.45 trln ($830 bln) spending in fiscal year ‘17/18, tax revenues estimated at 26-year high, bond financing to fall, 9-year low, debt servicing cost to fall, public works/defense spending up - Reuters.
- Japan MoF to reduce issuance of most JGB maturities in ‘17/18 – Reuters.
- MoF flow data week-ended Dec 17 – Japanese sell net Y56.3 bln foreign stocks,Y216.7 bln bonds, Y84.2 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y114.1 bln Japanese stocks, sell Y269.8 bln bonds, buy Y2.164 trln bills.
- Italy to bail out Monte dei Paschi di Siena, last-gasp private rescue plan for world’s oldest bank looks set to fail – Financial Times.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Nov import prices, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.9%.
- (0330 ET/0830 GMT) Sweden November retail sales, +0.5% m/m, +1.5% y/y eyed; last +0.7%, +2.4%.
- (0330 ET/0830 GMT) Sweden November PPI; last +2.0% m/m, +2.2% y/y.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Italy October industrial orders/sales; last -6.8% m/m, +2.6% y/y, -4.6%, -0.3%.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Italy October retail sales, +0.3% m/m eyed; last -0.6% m/m, -1.4% y/y.
- (0600 ET/1100 GMT) Italy November trade with non-EU – flash; last E3.85 bln surplus.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Q3 GDP – final, +3.3% AR eyed; prelim +3.2%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Q3 GDP deflator – final, +1.4% AR eyed; prelim +1.4%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Q3 PCE prices/core– final, +1.4%, +1.7% AR eyed; prelim +1.4%, +1.7%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Q3 corporate profits – revised; prelim +7.6%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Nov Chicago Fed national activity index, -0.1 eyed; last -0.08.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Nov durable goods orders, -4.7% m/m eyed; last +4.6%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Nov - ex-transport/defense, +0.2%, -0.1% m/m eyed; last +0.8%, +5.0%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US Nov – non-defense cap goods ex-air, +0.3% m/m eyed; last +0.2%.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) US w/e initial jobless claims, 256k eyed; last 254k.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) US Oct FHFA monthly home prices; last +0.6% m/m, +6.1% y/y, index 239.2.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Nov personal consumption, +0.3% m/m eyed; last +0.3% sa, +0.1% nsa.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Nov personal income, +0.3% m/m eyed; last +0.6%.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Nov PCE price index, +0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, +1.4%.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Nov – core, +0.1% m/m, +1.7% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +1.7%.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) US Nov leading indicators index, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.1%.
- (1100 ET/1600 GMT) US Dec KC Fed manufacturing, composite indices; last 9.0, 1.0.
- (1300 ET/1800 GMT) US Nov Dallas Fed PCE; last +2.2%.
Key Events Ahead
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) ECB economic bulletin.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped as investors took profits after its rise to a 14-year peak of 103.65 earlier this week. The dollar lost some steam on Thursday, slipping from its 14-year-high against a basket of currencies as investors took profits before a batch of U.S. economic data due later in the day is published.
EUR/USD: The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.0437, rebounding from $1.0352 on Tuesday, the lowest since January 2003. Intraday bias remains slightly bullish for the moment. Immediate support level is seen at $1.0352 and resistance was seen at $1.0539 level.
USD/JPY: The yen showed little movement ahead of a national holiday on Friday. The greenback stood at 117.62 yen, retreating from 10-1/2 month high of 118.66 yen set last week. A sustained close above 118.17 is required to take the parity higher towards 120.00 marks. Alternatively, a daily close below 116.98 will drag the parity down towards 114.81 levels.
GBP/USD: The sterling trades in narrow range against U.S. dollar On Thursday and stabilizes around 1.2350 marks. Short term bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at 1.2485 levels. On the other side, current downside movement will take the parity towards key supports around 1.2108 levels.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged down at $0.7221, hovering around lowest since early June. Pair made intraday high at 0.7257 and low at 0.7221. A consistent close below 0.7221 will drag the parity towards key supports around 0.7142, 0.7058 marks respectively. On the top side, key resistances are seen at 0.7260, 0.7312 and 0.7369 marks.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar broke a six-session losing streak on Thursday, stepping up after data showed the economy grew at a rapid pace in the third quarter, bolstering views the nation's central bank was done cutting interest rates. The New Zealand dollar added 0.3 percent to $0.6920 but stayed near a seven-month low of $0.6883 touched this week. New Zealand released GDP data with positive numbers at 1.1% Q/Q vs 0.7% Q/Q previous release.
Equities Recap
South Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.09 percent lower at 2,036.92 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei was trading 0.35 percent lower at 19,376.26 points.
Shanghai composite index to open down 0.2 pct at 3,132.16 points and China's CSI300 index to open down 0.1 pct at 3,335.12 points.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng was trading 0.87 percent lower at 21,618.00 points.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was trading 0.34 percent higher at 5,632.20 points.
Commodities Recap
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude had risen 13 cents to $52.62 a barrel by 0121, after closing the previous session down 81 cents. Brent futures for February delivery climbed 17 cents to $54.63 a barrel, having previously finished 89 cents lower.
Gold was little changed on Thursday in muted trade ahead of the holidays as the U.S. dollar slipped from 14-year highs. Spot gold was steady at $1,131.54 an ounce by 0253 GMT. The metal, which hit a 10-1/2-month low of $1,122.35 last week on hawkish rate hike forecast from the Federal Reserve, ended flat in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,132.90 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
New Zealand government bonds were mostly unchanged.
Australian government bond futures ticked lower, with the three-year bond contract and the 10-year contract down 1 tick each at 97.90 and 97.13 respectively.
U.S. 10-year treasuries yield at 2.533 percent vs U.S. close of 2.544 percent on Wednesday.
