- NZ July ANZ biz confidence -15.3%, lowest reading since mid-'09, own activity +19.0%, June -2.3%, +23.6%, businesses likely to benefit from lower rates.
- Japan Finance Minister Aso - Monitoring China stock market, eyeing Q3 economic recovery, no comment on TPP ccy forum proposal, TPP not intended for ccy talks.
- Japan June core CPI +0.1% y/y, Tokyo July core -0.1%, unchanged eyed for both, Tokyo y/y drop first since Apr '13, June overall CPI +0.4%, Tokyo July +0.2%.
- Japan June household spending -3.0% m/m, -2.0% y/y, -0.5% and +1.7% eyed.
- Japan June jobless 3.4%, jobs-applicants 1.19, 3.3/1.20 eyed, May 3.3%, 1.19.
- China securities regulator restricts 24 trading accounts for suspected trading irregularities, CSRC looking into automated trading strategies.
- China Agricultural Development Bank seeking PBOC funding support.
- Foreign CB US debt holdings +$26.067 bln to $3.352 trln July 29 week, Treasury holdings +$27.943 bln to $3.011 trln, agencies -$1.707 bln to $296.827 bln.
- NY Fed - Swaps with foreign CBs $359 mln July 29 week, BoJ $1 mln, rest ECB.
- US bond funds $3.5 bln, stock funds $1.8 bln outflows latest week.
- UK July GFK consumer confidence +4, +5 eyed, June +7, global econ woes cited.
- Australia June private-sector credit +0.4% m/m, +0.5% eyed, housing +0.6%, +5.9% and +7.3% y/y.
- Australia Q2 PPI +0.3% q/q, +1.1% y/y.
- Australia home prices weak outside of Sydney, Melbourne.
- AOFM sells A$1.2 bln 2019 bonds at 2.0142%, bids A$5.43 bln.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France June producer prices; last -0.5% m/m.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France June consumer spending, +0.6% m/m eyed; last +0.1%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway July unemployment, 3.1% nsa eyed; last 2.8%, 91.93k sa.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Spain May current account balance; last E230 mln deficit.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy June unemployment, 12.3% eyed; last 12.4%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone June unemployment, 11.1% eyed; last 11.1%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone July inflation flash, +0.2% y/y eyed; last +0.2%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone July ex-food/energy, +0.8% y/y eyed; last +0.8%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy July CPI flash, unchanged m/m, +0.3% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, +0.2%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy July HICP flash, -0.2% m/m, +0.3% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, +0.2%.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) Italy June producer prices; last +0.2% m/m, -1.9% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Q2 employment cost index, +0.6% q/q eyed; last +0.7%.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) Belgium Q2 GDP, +0.4% q/q eyed; last +0.3%.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US July Chicago PMI, 50.5 eyed; last 49.4.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Jul UOM sentiment index final, 94.0 eyed; prelim 93.3.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A UK GBP0.5/1.5/2.0 bln 1/3/6-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0130 ET/0530 GMT) SNB Q2 currency allocation.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway August FX operations, July NOK700 mln sales/day.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.0945 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0947 and low at 1.0926 levels. Greece could take the centre stage ahead of the weekend due to the Greek parliament fallouts and the IMF recently saying that they will not back a Greek debt program unless Euro zone creditors reach "explicit and concrete' agreement. The spot could also be influenced by the Euro zone preliminary CPI data and German retail sales figure. The EZ preliminary core inflation is seen rising 0.8% year-on-year, while German retail sales growth is seen slowing down to 0.3% month-on-month in June from 0.5% in May. Initial support is seen around at 1.0789 and resistance at 1.1195 levels.
USD/JPY is supported below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.25 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.89 and currently trading at 123.96 levels. The dollar-yen pair retreated in Asia, after the yen bulls jumped back into the bids cheering a tad better than expectations Japan's national CPI print. Japan's national CPI excluding fresh food rose 0.1% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said Friday. Markets had estimated a flat reading. Looking ahead, Employment Cost Index (ECI) from the US will shed more light on the stubbornly slow wage growth in the face of a substantial tightening of the jobs market. The baseline scenario is for a 0.6% increase in labour costs. Initial resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.
GBP/USD is supported above $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5614 and low at 1.5590 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5607 levels. US dollar remained fairly weaker, correcting heavy gains from Thursday following a rebound in the second quarter US growth numbers which boosted the greenback to fresh weekly highs against its major peers. US GDP for the second quarter improved from 0.6% to 2.3% and confirmed the solid growth of the US economy after the result in Q1. However, analysts had expected a 2.6% reading, with the Q1 GDP revised from -0.2% to 0.6%. Relatively solid GDP data added to expectations that the chances for a September rate hike are still well alive and traders will watch every number from the US economy very closely from now on. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.
NZDUSD is supported below 0.6600 levels and trading at 0.6582 levels and made intraday low at 0.6567 and high at 0.6614 levels. As the ANZ Business outlook indicator showed a significant decline in private sector confidence, the kiwi reflected the disappointment and declined. As the ANZ Business outlook showed on Friday, confidence in the private sector dropped the most since April 2009 in July. Although other indicators held up better, the economy still points to a slowdown, bringing worries to the market related to the island's economy. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6789 levels.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7300 levels and trading at 0.7296 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7308 levels and low at 0.7285 levels. The Australian dollar struggled near six-year lows on Friday as falling commodity prices, jitters about China and rising speculation of a U.S. interest rate hike set the stage for the largest monthly fall since October last year. Today Australia released PPI data. Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) declined to 0.3% from previous 0.5% while the country's private sector credit (YoY) fell from previous 6.2% to 5.9% in June. Initial support is seen at 0.7225 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
Equity Recap
Most Asian markets were mixed with Nikkei in Tokyo erased gains and now trade at -0.10%. While Chinese markets fell once again after the regulators restricted 24 stock trading accounts for suspected trading irregularities, SSEC -1%. The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was the top performer advancing 0.5%. South Korea's Kospi is down at -020%.
Taiwan stocks fell on Friday after the government gave a dismal early reading of second-quarter GDP growth, sharply lower than forecast. Taiwan stocks close up 0.2 pct at 8,665.34 points.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closes up 0.39 pct at 5,691.50 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei average closes up 0.30 pct at 20,585.24.
Treasury Recap
Indian government bonds trading little changed as traders remain cautious ahead of weekly debt sale. Benchmark bond now at , yielding 7.81%, against , lowest since July 17, and previous close. RBI to auction four bonds worth INR140 billion today, including INR60 billion of benchmark notes.
China's five-year Treasury bond futures opened mixed on Friday, with contract for settlement in September 2015 opening at 97.1 Yuan (15.87 U.S. dollars), down 0.1 Yuan from the previous trading day.
BOJ offers to buy Y 1.5 trln Treasury Discount Bills outright from 8/4.
New Zealand government bond yields were as much as 7.5 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures rose, with the three-year bond contract up 3 ticks at 98.080. The 10-year contract shot up 7.5 ticks to 97.1950, leading to a bullish flattening of the curve.
Commodity Recap
Gold slipped to near 5-1/2-year lows on Friday and was on course for a sixth straight weekly fall, its longest retreat since 1999, after upbeat U.S. economic data strengthened expectations for a near-term hike in interest rates. Bullion was also set to end July with its biggest monthly decline in more than two years after a deep rout last week further shook investor confidence, with more losses seen ahead. Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,084.60 an ounce by 0240 GMT, and has dropped more than 1 percent for the week. Bullion has lost 7.5 percent so far for the month, its steepest since June 2013.
U.S. crude futures slipped for a second session to trade around $48 a barrel in early Asian trade on Friday, as mixed economic data from the U.S. overnight weighed on sentiment, although a weaker dollar put a floor under prices. Brent crude oil for September delivery rose 12 cents to $53.43 after settling 27 cents lower in the previous session.
