Market Roundup
• New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2%, 0.9%forecast, 0.6% previous
• New Zealand Output (QoQ) (Q3)0.6%, 0.7% forecast,0.6% previous
• Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Oct)0.1%, 0.0% previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Sep) 4.2%,2.2% forecast,-0.9% previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep) 11.6%,5.4% forecast, 1.6% previous
• Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast,0.8% previous
• Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q3) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast,3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:00 UK Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
• 07:00 UK Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 07:00 UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 07:00 UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Oct): 3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
• 07:00 UK Core RPI (MoM) (Oct): -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
• 07:00 UK Core RPI (YoY) (Oct): 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.5% forecast, 3.8% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI n.s.a (Oct): 139.30 previous
• 10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Oct): 2.2% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI n.s.a (Oct): 129.70 forecast, 129.43 previous
• 10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Oct): 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
• 08:00 European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs report that could shed more light on the central bank's interest rate trajectory.minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, due to be released later in the day, and the September non-farm payrolls report, which will be released on Thursday after being delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown.Data showed on Tuesday that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits stood at a two-month high in mid-October.Last month, the U.S. Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled caution over another rate cut this year, in part due to the lack of data.Traders now see nearly a 49% chance for a rate cut at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling gained modestly against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited UK inflation data, which is expected to offer clearer signals on the Bank of England’s policy outlook. While markets remain patient as U.S. agencies work through a backlog of delayed economic data, British inflation figures are likely to have a more immediate impact on expectations for future BoE rate cuts.Most major central banks have largely completed their policy-normalisation cycles, and traders now anticipate around 59 basis points of BoE cuts by December 2026, up from 54 bps earlier this week. Markets are also pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut at the BoE’s next meeting.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Wednesday as cautious global risk sentiment kept bearish pressure on the currency. Investor sentiment has been fragile this week ahead of Nvidia’s earnings update, given the chipmaker’s central role in the rally that has driven global equity markets to record highs. On the data front, Australian wage growth came in steady and in line with expectations, easing concerns about rising wage pressures following strong labour market data. The Wage Price Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous period, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday. Annual wage growth remained at 3.4%, supported by a rise in public-sector pay, which accelerated to 3.8% its fastest pace since the second quarter of last year. In contrast, private-sector wage growth slowed to 3.2%, the weakest in more than three years.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The US dollar eased slightly on Wednesday as investors assessed the central bank’s tightening amid Japan’s expansionary fiscal outlook under Takaichi.BOJ Governor Ueda told PM Takaichi that the central bank is gradually raising rates to steer inflation toward 2% and support sustainable growth. The premier made no monetary policy requests, Ueda told reporters following his first meeting with Takaichi since her appointment. The meeting followed the yen’s drop to a nine-month low, prompting concern from Japan’s finance minister over currency volatility. Takaichi’s inauguration, a proponent of expansionary policy, complicates the BOJ’s push to raise low borrowing costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dipped on Wednesday, with jitters over AI valuations weighing on sentiment before Nvidia’s results..
Hang Seng was down 0.30% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded down 0.64% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was dowm 0.19%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell Wednesday after an industry report showed rising U.S. crude inventories, heightening oversupply concerns despite support from sanctions on Russian oil.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures eased 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.78 a barrel as of 0510 GMT, after gaining 1.1% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures were down 9 cents, or 0.2%, at $60.65 a barrel, after rising 1.4% on Tuesday.
Gold edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited Fed meeting minutes and U.S. jobs data for clues on the rate outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,074 per ounce, as of 0449 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged 0.2% higher to $4,074.40 per ounce.
