Market Roundup
- Trump says "big progress" on possible China trade deal.
- Republican Senator Graham says Trump receptive to shutdown deal idea.
- Putin tells Trump that Moscow is open for dialogue.
- China Dec Composite PMI, 52.6, 52.8 previous.
- China Dec NBS Manufacturing PMI, 49.4, 49.9 forecast, 50.0 previous.
- China Dec NBS Non - manufacturing PMI, 53.8, 53.4 previous.
- Australia Nov Private Sector Credit, 0.3%, 0.4% previous.
- Australia Nov Housing Credit, 0.3%, 0.3% previous.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) Swiss official reserve assets.
- (0330 ET/0830 GMT) Hong Kong money supply.
- (0400 ET/0900 GMT) Czech money supply.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Brazil lending rate.
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) Greece retail sales.
- (0600 ET/1100 GMT) Chile jobless rate.
- (0700 ET/1200 GMT) India infrastructure output.
- (0700 ET/1200 GMT) Chile copper output, manufacturing output.
Key Events Ahead
- No major events are scheduled for the day.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers was marginally lower, fetching 96.35 in early Asian trade.
EUR/USD: The euro quoted at $1.1440, trading flat versus the dollar. Although the single currency has gained versus the greenback in recent weeks, economic growth and inflation in Europe remain much weaker than the European Central Bank's expectations. The euro is set to lose around 4.5 percent versus the dollar in 2018. A consistent close below $1.1287 will drag the parity down towards key supports around $1.1185 and $1.1080 levels respectively. Alternatively, reversal from key support will drag the parity higher towards key resistances around $1.1472, $1.1550, $1.1620 and $1.1820 marks respectively.
USD/JPY: The yen was changing hands at 110.34 per dollar, a touch lower versus the greenback. The safe-haven yen has strengthened by 2.8 percent versus the dollar in the last two weeks of the year as investors sought its safety due to growing concerns of slowing economic growth, U.S.-Sino trade tensions and highly volatile moves in global equities. It made intraday high at 110.47 and low at 110.25 levels. A sustained close above 110.25 is required to take the parity higher towards key resistances around 111.40, 112.60, 113.98, 114.55, 115.25 and 117.98 marks respectively. Alternatively, a daily close below 110.25 will drag the parity down towards key supports around 109.24, 108.72 and 107.90 marks respectively.
GBP/USD: The sterling, which has been battered this year due to Brexit woes, was fetching $1.2700. The pound has lost 6 percent of its value versus the dollar this year. A sustained close below $1.2583 requires for dragging the parity down towards key supports around $1.2486 and $1.2150 mark. On the other side, key resistances are seen at $1.2760, $1.3047, $1.3187, $1.3215, $1.3362 and $1.3490 levels respectively.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday on expectations of progress in trade talks between China and the United States, although market sentiment remained fragile over looming concerns of slowing global growth and a partial U.S. government shutdown. The Australian dollar gained 0.3 percent to $0.7063. The fortunes of the Australian economy are closely tied to China, its largest trading partner. The pair made intraday high at $0.7067 and low at $0.7041 levels. Immediate support and resistance levels were seen at $0.7020 and $0.7303 mark respectively.
NZD/USD: The kiwi trades almost flat against U.S. dollar. Major support is down at $0.6632, with resistance around $0.6969. Pair made intraday high at $0.6720 and low at $0.6705 levels. A sustained close above $0.6702 is required to take the parity higher towards $0.6746, $0.6814 and $0.7050 mark respectively. Alternatively reversal from key resistance will take the parity down towards key supports around $0.6632 and $0.6402 levels respectively.
Equities Recap
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was trading 0.14 pct lower at 5,646.02 points.
HK’s Hang Seng index was open up 0.9 pct at 25,732.52 points.
India’s NSE Nifty was trading around 0.36 percent higher at 10,899.22 points while BSE Sensex was trading 0.30 points higher at 36,181.58 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed on the last trading day of the year on Monday, mirroring gains in stock markets, but were on track for the first yearly decline in three years amid lingering concerns of a persistent supply glut. Hints of progress on a possible U.S.-China trade deal helped bolster sentiment, which has been battered by concerns over a weaker global economic outlook. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices - rose 56 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $53.77 a barrel by 0420 GMT. Brent declined nearly 20 percent in 2018 following two years of growth. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $45.77 a barrel, up 44 cents, or 1 percent, from their last close. WTI is down about 24 percent this year.
Gold fell on Monday as equities gained on likely progress in Sino-U.S. trade standoff, amid bullion prices heading for their first annual decline since 2015, losing to the dollar mostly on trade worries and rising interest rates. However, the precious metal was on track for its best month since January 2017, having scrambled back from sharp declines in the year due to volatility in equities and a subdued dollar, along with worries over slowing global growth. Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,277.96 per ounce as at 0442 GMT on Monday, near a six month high of $1,282.09 it hit on Friday. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.2 percent to $1,280 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was last at 2.71 percent on Monday, having fallen around 30 basis points in December.
