Market Roundup
- NZ April food prices -0.3% m/m, +1.0% y/y, March -0.1% m/m, +1.9%.
- RBNZ Gov Wheeler - High NZD unsustainable wants further fall, RBNZ planning more home loan restrictions.
- Japan March c/a surplus trln, trln eyed, 9th straight surplus, weak JPY boosts overseas investment income, low crude good for trade balance.
- MoF April flow data - Japanese buy net trln foreign stocks, sell trln bonds, buy Y313.9 bln bills; foreign investors buy net trln Japanese stocks, Y861.2 bln bonds, trln bills.
- Japan April outstanding bank loans +2.6% y/y, trln, March +2.6%.
- Australia Q1 WPI total hourly pay +0.5% q/q, +2.3% y/y, +0.6%, +2.4% eyed.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0100 ET/0500 GMT) Japan April economy watchers survey sentiment diffusion index; last 52.2.
- (0130 ET/ 0530 GMT) France Q1 GDP - flash, +0.4% q/q eyed; last +0.1%.
- (0200 ET/0600 GMT) Germany Q1 GDP - flash, +0.5% q/q, +1.2% y/y eyed; last +0.7%, +1.6%.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France March current account balance; last E1.8 bln deficit.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France Q1 non-farm payrolls; last unchanged q/q.
- (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France April HICP - final, +0.1% m/m, +0.1% y/y; prelim +0.7%, unchanged.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Spain April CPI, +1.0% m/m, -0.6% y/y eyed; last +0.6%, -0.7%.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Spain April HICP, +0.7% m/m, -0.7% y/y eyed; last +2.0%, -0.7%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Q1 GDP - flash, +0.2% q/q, -0.2% y/y eyed; last unchanged, -0.5%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK April claimant count, -20k eyed; last -20.7k.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK March ILO unemployment, 5.5% eyed; last 5.6%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK March average earnings, +1.7% eyed, ex-bonus +2.1%; last +1.7%, +1.8%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone Q1 GDP - flash, +0.5% q/q, +1.1% y/y eyed; last +0.3%, +0.9%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone March industrial production, unchanged m/m, +1.8% y/y eyed; last +1.1%, +1.6%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy April CPI - final, +0.3% m/m, unchanged y/y eyed; prelim +0.3%, unchanged.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy April HICP - final, +0.5% m/m, unchanged y/y eyed; prelim +0.5%, unchanged.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April import/export prices, +0.3%, +0.1% m/m eyed; last -0.3%, +0.1%.
- (0830ET/1230 GMT) US April retail sales, +0.2% m/m, +0.5% ex-autos eyed; last +0.9%, +0.4%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US March business inventories, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.3%.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Greece 13-week treasury bill auction.
- (0230 ET/0630 GMT) Norges Bank seminar on '15 financial infrastructure report.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Iceland CB monetary policy announcement.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) ECB Coeure meets members of French parliamentary committee in Paris.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy E2.5-3/2-2.5/1-1.5 bln 0.25/1.35/1.65% 2018/22/32 BTP auctions.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy E750 mln 3.25% 2046 BTP auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) BoE quarterly inflation report., Gov Carney press conference to follow.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) Germany E3 bln 0.5% 2025 Bund auction.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1200 levels and currently trading at 1.1237 levels. Meanwhile, traders now focus on German prelim GDP, CPI figures and EMU GDP data for further impact on the main currency pair. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1300 levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.1346 (Feb 10 High) levels. On the down side, support is seen at 1.1134 (Today's Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1070 (April 30 Low) levels.
USD/JPY turns downside and currently trading below 120.00 levels and made high of 119.95 levels. Japan released current account data with positive numbers. Another data from Japan will be economy watchers sentiment. On the top side, the next resistance is located at 120.30 (May 1 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.54 (May 5 High) levels. Immediate support might be located at 120, below that at 119.43 (May 11 Low) levels.
GBP/USD is flat at 1.5680 after hitting 2015 high of 1.5628 and made a new high at 1.5710 levels, largely on the back of remarkable manufacturing and industrial production data from the UK. Market will now be looking toward the UK Job data, Bank of England (BoE) Quarterly Inflation Report and additional comments by BoE Governor Mark Carney. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5700 above which gains could be extended to 1.5757 (Dec 17 High) levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.5600.
USD/CHF is supported well below 0.9300 levels and trading around 0.9267 levels. Pair has made intraday high at 0.9293 and low at 0.9265 levels. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9195 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9367, 0.9412 levels.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.7979 and made intraday high at 0.8009 levels. Today is comparatively less data from Australia. It released wage price index data with flat numbers only. China is going to issue Industrial production as well as retail sales data, which will give further direction to the parity. Initial support is seen at 0.7859 and resistance at 0.8030 levels.
