Asia Round Up: Australia’s NAB business survey improves significantly in May - June 9th, 2015

Market Roundup

• Australia April owner-occupied housing finance +1.0% m/m, -2% eyed, investment housing finance +2.6%.
  
  
• Australia May business conditions index +7, confidence +7, April +4, +3.
  
  
• Australia May overall job ads unchanged m/m, newspapers -4.3%, internet +0.1%.
  
  
• NZ May QV residential property index +9.0% y/y, April +8.4%.
  
  
• NZ Q1 mfg sales volumes -0.3% q/q, +0.5% y/y.
  
  
• NZ govt April OBEGAL NZ$450 mln, +180.7% vs forecast, net debt 27% of GDP.
  
  
• Japan EconMin Amari - Important for FX to move in stable manner in line with fundamentals, up to markets to decide levels, fast growth may not be sustainable, must monitor CAPEX closely.
  
  
• Japan May money supply M2 +4.0% y/y, M3 +3.3%, broadest liquidity +4.3%.
  
  
• China May CPI -0.2% m/m, +1.2% y/y, unchanged/+1.3% eyed; PPI -4.6% y/y vs -4.5%.
  
  
• BoC DepGov Wilkins - Higher interest rates will be test for financial system.
  
  
• ECB/BdF Noyer - Greece can have only minimal effect on EUR, 2% of EZ economy, forward guidance very clear for coming years.
  
  
• UK May BRC like-for-like retail sales unchanged y/y, total sales +1.1%, April -1.3% and -2.4%, "disappointingly flat".

Economic Data Ahead

• (0100 ET/0500 GMT) Japan May consumer confidence index; last 41.5.
  
  
• (0145 ET/0545 GMT) Switzerland May unemployment, 3.3% sa eyed; last 3.3% nsa and sa.
  
  
• (0245 ET/0645 GMT) France April budget balance; last bln deficit.
  
  
• (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland May CPI, +0.1% m/m, -1.2% y/y eyed; last -0.2%, -1.1%.
  
  
• (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK April trade balance, GBP9.9 bln deficit eyed; last bln deficit.
  
  
• (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK April - non-EU, GBP3.0 bln deficit eyed; last GBP 3.16 bln deficit.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone Q1 GDP - revised, +0.4% q/q, +1.0% y/y eyed; prelim +0.4%, +1.0%.
  
  
• (0900 ET/1300 GMT) US May NFIB business optimism index; last 96.9.
  
  
• (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US April wholesale inv/sales, +0.2%, +0.5% m/m eyed; last +0.1%, -0.2%.
  
  
• (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US April JOLTS job openings; last 4.99 mln.

Key Events Ahead

• N/A Germany E2.5 bln index-linked 30-year syndication.
  
  
• N/A Greece 13/26-week bill, Slovenia 6/12-month bill auctions.
  
  
• (0200 ET/0600 GMT) ECB/Finland CB Liikanen speech at Helsinki FSA conference.
  
  
• (0300 ET/0700 GMT) BoE DepGov Tucker speech at London's Chatham House event.
  
  
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) ECB/Buba Weidmann remarks at Frankfurt Buba lecture.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Netherlands E3 bln zero% 2018 DSL auction.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Austria bln total 0.25% and 1.65% 2019 and 2024 RAGB auctions.
  
  
• (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day7 refinance at fixed 0.05%, E90 bln allotment eyed, last E92.5 bln.
  
  
• (0630 ET/1030 GMT) UK DMO GBP900 mln 0.125% 2024 index-linked Gilt auction.
  
  
• (0630 ET/1030 GMT) BoE Bailey in London panel discussion.
  
  
• (0700 ET/1100 GMT) Slovakia CB Makuch press conference on latest economic forecasts.
  
  
• (1000 ET/1400 GMT) ECB Nouy speech at Berlin conference.
  
  
• N/A IEF Americas Conference of Montreal (till June 11), various speakers.

FX Recap

EUR/USD is supported above 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1312 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1331 and low at 1.1272 levels. EUR continues to make across the board gains due to short-covering. Today important data from Euro Zone will be France Budget balance as well as revised GDP from Euro area. Initial support is seen at 1.1275 and resistance is seen around 1.1380 levels.

USD/JPY is supported below 125.00 levels and posted a high of 124.72 levels. It has made intraday low at 124.38 and currently trading at 124.53 levels. Today in Asian session, Japan released M2 money stock data with positive numbers. This indicator looks at the total amount of money available in the economy. The rebound of the yen against the greenback came amid rumours that US President Barack Obama had told officials on Monday that he was concerned about the strength of the US dollar. Near term resistance is seen at 125.86 (June 5 high) and support is seen at 124.30 levels.

GBP/USD is supported above $1.5300 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5362 and low at 1.5331 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5346 levels. Today UK will release trade balance data, which will provide further direction to the parity. Initial support is seen at 1.5189 and resistance is seen around 1.5368 levels.

USD/CHF is supported below 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9262 levels and made intraday low at 0.9251 and high at 0.9281 levels. Today Switzerland will release Unemployment data as well CPI data. Near term support is seen at 0.9230 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9500 levels.

AUD/USD is supported above 0.7650 levels and trading at 0.7688 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7721 levels and low at 0.7676 levels. The Aussie snapped previous gain and fell back in red after consumer and producers prices in China eased in May, adding to a growing number of signs that external demand in the world's second-biggest economy may be slowing. Australia is highly dependent on China for its exports. Moreover, the Aussie shrugged off upbeat business confidence data from Australia which revealed that the NAB Business Confidence Index jolted up to 7 in May from 3 in April, while the NAB Business Conditions Index rose to 7 from 4. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7739 levels.