- BOJ Tankan - Japan firms eye CPI +1.4% in year, +1.5% in three, +1.6% in five, previous survey +1.4%, +1.6%, +1.6%, still short of BOJ's 2% target.
- Japan MoF flow data week-ended June 27 - Japanese buy net Y234.0 bln foreign stocks, sell Y45.2 bln bonds, Y64.6 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y298.2 bln Japanese stocks, sell trln bonds, Y250.9 bln bills.
- Japan June monetary base +33.5% to new record high, trln.
- China PBOC steps up injection despite improving liquidity.
- Fed, industry at odds over bond market liquidity.
- US June auto sales 17.16 mln AR, Toyota sees US industry sales at highest since '05.
- IMF Lagarde - Greece must reform before getting debt relief.
- Australia May trade deficit A$2.751 bln, A$2.2 bln eyed, exports +1% m/m, imports -4%.
- NZ June ANZ commodity price index -3.1% m/m, -19.7% y/y, three-year low.
- NZ Fonterra GDT price index -5.9% but volumes up at latest auction.
- (0430 ET/ 0830 GMT) UK June construction PMI, 56.5 eyed; last 55.9.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro zone May producer prices, +0.1% m/m, -2.0% y/y eyed; last -0.1%, -2.2%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Jun non-farm payrolls, +230k eyed; last +280k.
- (08300 ET/1230 GMT) US June unemployment, 5.4% eyed; last 5.5%, participation 62.9%.
- (08300 ET/1230 GMT) US June average earnings, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.3%.
- (08300 ET/1230 GMT) US June average workweek, 34.5 hrs eyed; last 34.5 hrs.
- (08300 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 270k eyed; last 271k.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US June New York ISM index; last 683.7.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May factory orders, -0.5% m/m eyed; last -0.4%, ex-transport unchanged.
Key Events Ahead
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Riksbank policy announcement, no change in -0.25% repo rate eyed.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) EU/Dutch FinMin Dijsselbloem parliamentary testimony at The Hague.
- (0405 ET/0805 GMT) BOE Gracie speech at London cyber-security conference.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Spain E2.5-3.5 bln 3.75/1.15/1.6% 2018/20/25 Bono auctions.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Spain E250-750 mln 1.0% 2030 index-linked Bono auction.
- (0450 ET/0850 GMT) France E7-8 bln 0.5/4.75/4.5% 2025/35/41 OAT auctions.
- (0630 ET/1030 GMT) UK DMO bln 2.0% 2020 Gilt auction.
- (1110 ET/1510 GMT) ECB Pres Draghi at T2S Milan event/17:00 ECB Mersch speech.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1100 levels and currently trading at 1.1068 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1076 and low at 1.1031 levels. The pair is following a downward trajectory, as the news that Greek PM Tsipras accepted the majority of the creditors' last proposal fades continuously away. Yesterday US ISM manufacturing index for June ticked higher to 53.5, from 52.8 in May and beat analysts' expectations. The June ADP data came out stronger than expected, showing job gains of 237K (consensus 218K) with the May print revised slightly higher to 203K. The pair was dropping on Wednesday, with the sell-off fuelled mainly by solid US figures and Greece's chaotic situation. However, the most crucial data will come on Thursday with the release of non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and jobless claims. Later in the session, ECB's Governor Mario Draghi is expected to speak. Initial support is seen around 1.0952 and resistance is seen around 1.1218 levels.
USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.45 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.12 and currently trading at 123.32 levels. Pair has been better bid at the start of the month, moving decisively to the upside from the off in Europe all the way through to the US and Asian handover. Tokyo has seen an initial bid and a few pips of a waver here or there, leaving the yen in supply and a positive tone around the greenback. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 121.48 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5600 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5616 and low at 1.5597 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5614 levels. The British sterling fell deeper into the negative territory as the buck struck amid a sluggish factory update in the UK, while US labour and manufacturing provided the necessary strength to maintain the conquered position. Today market will eye on UK construction PMI data as well as US NFP job data for the further direction. Initial support is seen at 1.5600 and resistance is seen around 1.5737 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9400 levels and trading at 0.9461 levels and made intraday low at 0.9459 and high at 0.9488 levels. Yesterday Switzerland released manufacturing PMI data at 50.00 with market expectations only vs 49.4 previous release. Apart from that US released ADP job data and ISM manufacturing PMI with positive numbers. CHF is depreciating after the data released and now market will eye on US NFP job data for the further direction of the parity. Near term support is seen at 0.9279 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9542 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7650 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7656 levels and low at 0.7628 levels. Pair was a minor offer in Tokyo's progression on a better bid greenback and then the Aussie's negative trade balance. Australia's international trade balance remains in the red with a deficit of $2.75 billion in May, larger than the $2.25 million deficit expected by economists. The release of US NFP job data could be very influential for the greenback and would impact on AUD$ too. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
