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Market Roundup
- US Import Prices MM Feb 0.40%, (consensus 0.20%, previous -3.1%)
- US Export Prices MM Feb -0.10%, (consensus -0.20%, previous -1.9%)
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 289k, (consensus 305k, previous 325k)
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 302.25k, (previous 306.00k)
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.418m, (consensus 2.400m, previous 2.423m)
- US Retail Sales MM Feb -0.6%, (consensus 0.3%, previous -0.8%)
- US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Feb -0.1%, (consensus 0.5%, previous -1.1%)
- US Retail Ex Gas/Autos Feb -0.2%, (previous -0.1%)
- US Retail Control Feb 0%, (consensus 0.4%, previous -0.1%)
- US Business Inventories MM Jan 0%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0%)
- US Federal Budget,$ Feb -192b, (consensus -187.0b, previous -18.0b)
- CA Capacity Utilization Q4 83.6%, (consensus 83.6%, previous 83.2%)
- CA New Housing Price Index Jan -0.1%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.1%)
- ECB's Weidmann monetary policy not aiming to lower euro
- ECB GC raises ELA cap for Greek banks via the Greek CB by about EUR 600m
- German FinMin Schaeuble said that Greece was "certainly not a hopeless case"
- German FinMin Schaeuble attempts to generate more growth via more CB liquidity have limited success
- BOE's Carney risk that persistently low global inflation & GBP strength could weigh on prices for some time, BOE to consider FX, foreign prices as it considers rate hike
- Greece's Tsipras says no cause for concern Greece will meet its obligations, cooperation w/the OECD in next 4 years will help regain ground lost to austerity, reforms will aim at tackling tax evasion & avoidance
- Bk of Canada's Mendes lower CAD is improving competitiveness of production in Canada, sees business investment picking up
- Denmark's CB chief says we have not found lower bound for int rates yet
- S&P's Nunes says Brazil's econ numbers have turned more negative since rating downgrade, very important Brazil meets fiscal targets
- Brazil's CB minutes outlook for '16 inflation to converge to target strengthening, '15 inflation outlook rising, CB expects govt-controlled prices to rise 10.7% in 2015
- Mexico's Videgaray government will act "in an opportune manner" to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market
- Chile's central bank has no space for additional monetary stimulus in the foreseeable future
- Reuters Poll Fed to raise rates in June, but economists nearly evenly split in close call
- Reuters Poll First BOE rate hike pushed to Q1 '16 from Q4 '15
Economic Data Ahead
- (0700 ET/ 1100 GMT) NewZealand Manufacturing PMI Feb (previous 50.9)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) NewZealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings Feb (previous 63.6%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Industrial Output Rev Jan (previous 4%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Jan (previous 2%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY fell below 121.00 on the back of disappointing US retail sales data but later managed to recover from lows. The pair erased intraday losses during the American afternoon rose more than half a cent over the last hours and is currently trading at 121.373. Immediate resistances seen at 121.65 (daily high) and 122.02 (2015 high Mar 10). While supports lie at 120.68 (daily low) and 120.56 (200-hour SMA). Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 120.00 (567M), 120.50 (550M), 121.00 (1.4BLN), 122.00 (1BLN).
USD/CAD: USD/CAD upside momentum will need a more powerful catalyst. Another failure around 1.28 and ease with which the pair broke below yesterday's open of 1.2689 clear warnings that the upside might be more gradual than expected. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2700 with a high of 1.2770 and a low of 1.2615. Key labour market figures are due (Fri)in Canada, while the Reuters/Michigan index will be the main highlight in the US economy. Strong support now at 1.2565 and major, pivotal support at 1.2375. Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 1.2650-60 (930M)
GBP/USD: Pound continued to drop across the board despite the decline of the dollar in the market and weak US data. GBP/USD extended decline below 1.4900 and printed a fresh 20-month low at 1.4850. The pair is headed for the third daily decline in a row and the lowest close since 2010. Currently the pair trades at 1.4852, down 0.50% for the day. Support lies at 1.4830 (March 2013 low), 1.4800 and 1.4780. Resistance likely at 1.4890 (March 11 low), 1.4940 and 1.5020/25 (daily high). Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 1.4980 (317M), 1.5000 (223M)
EUR/USD: EUR/USD managed to quickly leave behind fresh 12-year lows in the 1.0490 area in early trade boosted by risk, USD weakness. Softer than expected US retail sales gave extra legs to the pair which climbed as high as the boundaries of 1.0700. The single currency is now looking to stabilize around 1.0610/15 against the greenback. At the time of writing the pair is advancing 0.60%, trading at 1.0612. Resistances are at at 1.0718 (high ) followed by 1.0855 (high ) and then 1.0906. Supports lie at 1.0494 (12-year low ), 1.0335 (2003 low Jan.2) and finally 1.0207 (low 2002). Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 1.0600 (321M), 1.0650 (409M)
AUD/USD: Risk appetite and a weak US dollar pushed AUD/USD to the upside, but the pair was unable to hold on top of 0.7700 and pulled back, trimming gains. The pullback found support above 0.7675 and the pair is currently trading at 0.7685, up 1.20% for the day. 0.7730 has become an important short term resistance. Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 0.7600 (1BLN), 0.7700 (565M), 0.7795-0.7800 (600M)
NZD/USD: Kiwi spiked as RBNZ signalled rate pause, but NZD/USD was unable to hold above 0.7400. The relief rally on the back of the steady hand from the RBNZ failed at the 0.74 handle. The pair is currently trading at 0.7365 with a high of 0.7449 and a low of 0.7273. Option expiries for Friday March 13th: 0.7200 (344M), 0.7325 (353M)0.7520 (292M)
