As Gold Eclipses $3,000, Experts at Lear Capital Analyze Potential for Continued Price Hikes in 2025

The gold market has experienced a remarkable surge in 2025, with prices consistently reaching new all-time highs. After zooming past the historic high of $3,100 per ounce in March 2025, experts at Lear Capital are analyzing whether this momentum can continue through the remainder of the year.

"With gold hitting $3,100 per ounce in mid-March, the economic headwinds we identified in our initial report are accelerating, potentially shortening the timeline to the $4,200 milestone," said Kevin DeMeritt, founder of Lear Capital, citing his firm’s earlier projection.

The precious metal's strong performance marks a continuation of a multi-year uptrend. On March 31, gold reached a record high of $3,128.06 and could continue to climb, with demand likely to remain strong amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Factors Driving Gold's Current Price Movement

Several key factors have combined to create what industry analysts are calling a "perfect storm" for gold's price rise. Understanding these drivers can help investors evaluate the potential for continued price appreciation.

U.S. tariff policy has had a significant influence on current gold pricing. Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on trading partners has created market uncertainty that typically benefits gold. According to Reuters, the 25% tariffs imposed on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with a 10% charge on Chinese goods, "fuelled fears of a trade war that could slow global growth and feed inflation.” While Trump has since walked back aspects of his tariff agenda, uncertainty remains, and he’s been steadfast in his decision to implement global tariffs in April.

Trade tensions were evident when Trump began implementing his tariff policies in early 2025, and the resulting market uncertainty sent shockwaves across the U.S. equity market as investors anticipated more tariffs. Gold benefited from this situation as investors sought safe-haven assets amid growing concerns.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, explained the economic dynamics at play: "There're concerns that some of the (economic) growth may come down because of the policies and tariffs that the current administration is looking to implement. So when you've got higher inflation and lower growth, stagflation becomes the economic theme. Gold tends to work very well in that particular environment.”

According to Marcus Garvey at Macquarie Group, "President Trump's rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations."

Central Bank Purchasing and Market Activity

Institutional buying constitutes another significant factor pushing gold prices higher. Central banks globally have demonstrated a continuing appetite for gold, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes for the third consecutive year according to World Gold Council data.

The trend has continued into 2025, with central banks remaining key buyers in the market. According to the World Gold Council's latest central bank statistics, based on available reported data, central banks bought a net 53 tonnes in November 2024. The National Bank of Poland was the biggest buyer at 21 tonnes, while the People's Bank of China reported its first addition of 5 tonnes since April 2024. Analysts expect this type of central bank activity to accelerate given the global economic flux created by the incoming Trump administration.

"Central bank buying is policy driven and thus difficult to forecast, but our surveys and analysis suggest central bank demand in 2025 will surpass the approximate long-term trend of 500 tonnes," notes Mining Weekly in its analysis of gold's price drivers.

"Around the world, central banks continue to buy more gold than we've seen since the early '70s,” says Lear Capital’s DeMeritt. “That has not stopped at all. China continues to buy, Russia continues to buy, India continues to buy — and not at small levels.

"Those countries are not day traders. They buy [and] hold [it] for 10, 15, 20 years. I think they're nervous about the dollar and its world reserve status.”

Demand and Debt

Underlying market fundamentals provide additional support for gold's continued price trajectory. The World Gold Council's Gold Outlook 2025 report indicates that factors such as strong global gold exchange-traded fund inflows and over-the-counter demand contributed to gold's record-breaking year in 2024, with the price rising more than 28% in US dollars and trading 22% higher on average than during 2023.

With U.S. national debt surpassing $36 trillion and interest payments approaching $1 trillion annually, concerns about debt sustainability have intensified. The Congressional Budget Office estimates over $1 trillion in annual interest payments on that debt for the next decade.

These fiscal challenges have eroded confidence in the U.S. dollar, enhancing gold's appeal as an alternative store of value. Lear Capital highlighted this connection in its "$4,200 Gold Ahead?" report, suggesting that current economic conditions are accelerating the timeline for gold to top $4,000.

Supply Chain Dynamics Affecting Price

The physical movement of gold across global markets provides another interesting dimension to the current price dynamics. Bullion banks have been transporting gold from European and Asian trading hubs like London, Dubai, and Hong Kong to the U.S. to profit from the unusually high U.S. gold futures premium over spot prices.

This physical movement of gold shows how global supply chain dynamics can influence regional pricing and overall market stability. The premium for U.S. gold futures over spot prices indicates strong demand within the American market, potentially driven by concerns about economic stability and inflationary pressures related to tariff policies.

According to exchange data cited by Reuters, 12.9 million troy ounces of gold were delivered to U.S. Commodity Exchange-approved warehouses since late November, raising stocks by 73.5% to 30.4 million ounces, the highest since July 2022.

Investor Sentiment and Risk Assessment

Investor sentiment toward gold has shifted significantly in 2025, with many market participants reassessing their risk profiles in light of economic and geopolitical developments.

Lear Capital's Kevin DeMeritt has observed this shift firsthand. "Through the end of 2025, I would actually be shocked if you don't see it between $3,200 and $3,500 an ounce. With everything going on in the world and a possible recession here in the United States, it could go higher,” he says.

This sentiment is echoed by other market analysts. Macquarie Group now predicts gold will touch $3,500 in the third quarter of 2025. Deutsche Bank recently raised its average gold price forecasts for 2026 to $3,700, and Goldman Sachs has projected scenarios in which the price could hit $4,500 within the next 12 months.