Market Roundup
• US Feb import prices moderate 0.2% v 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous on cheap fuel; export prices rise 0.1%.
• US Weekly jobless claims +20k to 243k v forecast 235k, 4-wk avg +2.25k.
• ECB holds rates steady, ’17 GDP 1.8% v 1.7% in Dec, ’18 GDP 1.7% v 1.6% in Dec, ’19 GDP steady at 1.6%.
• ECB’s Draghi: No sense of urgency to take further action (USD hit), Euro is irrevocable.
• ECB’s Draghi: had cursory discussion about removing lower (w/regard to rates) in forward guidance.
• ECB’s Draghi: Monitoring distortions in German bond market.
• Oil prices slide more CLc1 off 2.2%, U.S. crude oil stocks hit record high 528.4 mln bbls- EIA
• OPEC, non-OPEC to meet March 26 to discuss production cuts
• Macron consolidates lead over Le Pen in French election polls
• Mexico annual inflation rate was 4.86% in Feb, highest in 7 yrs
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Business Survey Index* Q1 7.5- previous
• 00:30 Australia Housing Finance* Jan -1.00%, 0.40%-previous
• 00:30 Australia Invest Housing Finance* Jan -1.00%- previous
• 03:00 Australia TR IPSOS PCSI Mar 48.3- previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.0513 levels and currently trading at 1.0577 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.0615 and hit lows at 1.0565 levels. Euro rose against dollar on Thursday as single currency found strength after European Central Bank head Mario Draghi suggested it was less necessary to prop up the market through ultra-loose monetary policy. The European Central Bank pledged to keep its aggressive stimulus policy at least until the end of the year, but markets leaped higher as it signaled there was less of a need to prop up growth and inflation in the euro zone. ECB President Mario Draghi said the Bank had removed one phrase from its standard introductory statement that pledged it would act "using all the instruments available within its mandate" if needed to achieve its objectives. However, the central bank did not announce any changes to its monetary policy in the statement. The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as the euro gained after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi suggested it was less necessary to prop up the market through ultra-loose monetary policy. The euro rose above $1.06 during Draghi's remarks, reversing declines. It was last up 0.36 percent at $1.0577.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against the euro and five other major world currencies, fell 0.01 percent at 101.970.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2130 levels and currently trading at 1.2172 levels. It reached session high at 1.2194 and dropped to session low at 1.2132 levels. Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday as sterling came under selling pressure after the European Central Bank said euro zone economic growth and prices did not now need immediate support, while concerns about the British economic outlook also weighed. ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday said the bank would continue its aggressive stimulus policy at least until the end of this year. But he said the ECB no longer felt a "sense of urgency" about taking further steps to prop up growth and inflation in the euro zone. A surge in euro-buying following Draghi's remarks pushed the pound down to fresh seven-week lows of 87.19 pence per euro, and $1.2134. Sterling was last trading down 0.4 percent at 86.69 pence per euro, and 0.1 percent lower at $1.2160. It has fallen nine times in the last ten trading days, as downbeat UK economic data and talk of a fresh Scottish independence referendum have created uncertainty for investors in the run-up to Britain's divorce talks with the European Union.
USD/CAD is supported at 1.3438 levels and is trading at 1.3507 levels. It has made session high at 1.3529 and lows at 1.3493 levels. The Canadian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil dipped and expectations for further U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes next week kept the greenback firmer against its major peers. Prices of oil, one of Canada's major exports, extended the biggest falls this year as record U.S. crude inventories kept sentiment weak, pointing to a global glut despite supply cuts. U.S. crude prices were down 1 percent at $49.76 a barrel. Increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week has added to recent pressure on the Canadian dollar. In contrast, the Bank of Canada is expected to wait until 2018 before raising rates. On the data front, Canadian industries ran at 82.2 percent of capacity in the fourth quarter of 2016, up 0.6 percentage points from the third quarter, Statistics Canada said. In other domestic data, new home prices climbed 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in January. The Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.3504 to the greenback, or 74.05 U.S. cents, slightly weaker than Wednesday's close of C$1.3494, or 74.11 U.S. cents.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7471 levels and currently trading at 0.7505 levels. It hit session high at 0.7527 and made session lows at 0.7493 levels. The Australian dollar declined against greenback on Thursday as the greenback strengthened after robust U.S. jobs data cemented the chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. The Australian dollar held at $0.7515, its lowest since Jan. 27. After gaining in the first two months of the year, the Aussie has fallen 1.7 percent so far in March, largely due to a resurgent U.S. dollar. Wednesday’s ADP data showed U.S. private payrolls grew by 298,000 jobs last month, the largest increase since December 2015. The gain was well above economists' expectations for a 190,000 increase. The solid report made it almost certain the U.S. Fed will hike rates at its March 14-15 meeting, and increased the likelihood of more rate rises during the year. Investors are awaiting non-farm payrolls data on Friday for further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the central bank was poised to lift rates, provided that jobs and inflation data held up.Her comments were seen as cementing plans for an increase at the Fed's March 14-15 meeting.
Equities Recap
European shares made slight gains on Thursday, as banking stocks rallied after the European Central Bank struck a more optimistic tone on the economy, outweighing losses by oil stocks and some disappointing company updates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 down by 0.3 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.2 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.4 percent
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A late rebound in energy shares helped U.S. stocks end a choppy session a tad higher on Thursday ahead of the U.S. monthly jobs report.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.03 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.09 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.03 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday with longer-dated yields reaching their highest in about 11 weeks, in step with their German counterparts before Friday's U.S. jobs report that may seal expectations the Federal Reserve will raise rates next week.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 4 basis points at 2.594 percent after touching 2.607 percent which was the highest since Dec. 16.
The two-year yield, which is most sensitive to traders' view on Fed policy, was up nearly 2 basis points at 1.371 percent after hitting 1.379 percent which was last seen in August 2009.
Commodities Recap
Oil fell about 2 percent on Thursday in heavy trade, extending the previous session's slump to prices not seen since an OPEC-led pact to cut production was agreed, as record U.S. crude inventories fed doubts about the effectiveness of the deal to curb a global glut.
Brent crude settled 92 cents, or 1.7 percent, lower at $52.19 a barrel. On Wednesday, the benchmark slumped 5 percent, its biggest daily percentage move in a year.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) extended Wednesday's 5.4 percent losses by 2 percent, or $1, to end at $49.28 a barrel, the first time below the $50-mark since mid-December
Gold fell for the sixth straight session and reached a five-week low on Thursday, with analysts expecting further losses as investors become increasingly certain that U.S. interest rates will rise this month.
Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,202.11 an ounce by 3:01 p.m. EST (2001 GMT) after dropping to $1,201.02, its weakest since Feb. 1.U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5 percent at $1,203.20..
