Market Roundup
• US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 2.20%, 2.10% forecast, 2.80% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.8%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.8%, 1.9% forecast, 2.5% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q3) 3.0%, 1.9% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q3) 1.5%, 2.7% forecast, 2.5% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 3.7%, 2.8% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Oct) 2.0%, 1.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Oct) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Oct) 2.4%, 2.1% forecast, 1.8% previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 7.4%, 1.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Pending Home Sales Index (Sep) 75.8, 70.6 previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories -0.515M, 1.500M forecast, 5.474M previous
•USEIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.031M, 0.329M previous
•US Crude Oil Imports: -0.605M, 0.913M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.681M, -0.346M previous
•US Distillate Fuel Production -0.148M, 0.257M previous
•US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.977M, -1.590M forecast, -1.140M previous
•US Gasoline Production-0.259M, 0.666M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Sep): 7.90% previous
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep): -6.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q3): -5.9% previous
•00:30 Australia Housing Credit (Sep): 0.4% previous
•00:30 Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q3): -0.2%, 1.0% forecast
•00:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Sep): 0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Sep): 0.5%, 0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3): -0.3% previous
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.7% forecast
•01:30 Chinese Composite PMI (Oct): 50.4 previous
•01:30 Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 50.0, 49.8 previous
•01:30 Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 50.4, 50.0 previous
• 03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
•06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday as expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts were scaled back following a stronger-than-expected Q3 growth reading for the euro zone and rise in German inflation. Gross domestic product in the 20 countries sharing the euro grew by 0.4% in the third quarter from the previous three months, beating expectations for 0.2%.The biggest surprise came from Germany, the bloc's largest economy, which expanded by 0.2% on higher public and private consumption, despite a host of officials predicting a recession given the struggles of its vast industrial sector.French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank should retain its focus on getting inflation to 2% in the medium-term, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel argued for gradual rates cuts. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said price stability is not far off .Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0870(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0925(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0825(SMA9 ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against dollar on Wednesday as traders reacted to the Labour government's inaugural budget. Britain's new finance minister Rachel Reeves announced the biggest tax increases in three decades in her first budget, as she accused the Conservatives of leaving public services broken when they lost July's election after 14 years in power. Reeves said she would raise taxes by 40 billion pounds ($52.04 billion) a year much of it falling on businesses - to cover a 22 billion-pound shortfall inherited by her Labour Party. Investors pre-budget nerves had risen after data showed British public borrowing had reached nearly 100% of GDP and Reeves accused the former Conservative government, which Labour replaced in July's landslide election win Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2978(5 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3028(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2922(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.22900 (Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened modestly against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as oil prices rose and the greenback posted broad-based declines, but the loonie remained within reach of an earlier 12-week low The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose after data showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly last week. U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.1% higher at $68.61 a barrel.Canada's currency has weakened 3.5% since late September. Still, that has not stopped Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem from projecting further interest rate cuts if the economy evolves as the central bank expects. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.39 to the U.S. dollar , after touching its weakest intraday level since Aug. 5 at 1.3940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3952 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3879(5 SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3865 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased from three-month highs against the yen on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected U.S. data and a UK budget release set off choppy trading in a market awaiting jobs data later this week and a U.S. election the next.U.S. private payrolls growth surged in October, overcoming fears of temporary disruptions from hurricanes and strikes, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Meanwhile, separate data showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly lower than the 3% expected by economists. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, rose to 104.43 earlier in the session but was last seen down 0.17% to 104.06. It rose to the highest since July 30 at 104.63 on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.21(5 SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 151.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index fell 1% to its lowest in over a month on Wednesday, as technology and mining stocks led a broader market decline in the aftermath of disappointing corporate earnings and some key economic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.73 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.10 percent.
U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Wednesday as chip stocks tumbled and investors awaited a host of corporate earnings.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.22% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.33% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.49% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a record high on Wednesday as uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election boosted safe-haven demand, with traders also awaiting economic data for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,788.87 per ounce by 9:55 a.m. ET (1355 GMT), after reaching an all-time high of $2,789.73 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% higher at $2,800.8.
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, rising more than 2% after data showed U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly last week and on reports that OPEC+ may delay a planned oil output increase.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.43, or 2.01%, at $72.55 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.4, or 2.08%, to $68.61.
