Market Roundup
- Fed's Bullard: better than 50% chance of US hike in Sept, need to get ahead of curve (Fox).
- Fitch: expects refinance & FX risk from US liftoff to be greatest for corporate in Russia, Central/Eastern Europe & Latin America.
- Bundesbank says hard landing in China would have noticeable impact on Germany.
- IMF confirms Greece repaid totality of arrears to IMF, equivalent to SDR 1.6B.
- CA Wholesale Trade MM May -1%, f/c 0%, 1.7%-previous, no surprise in wake of last week's BoC cut.
- S&P says Puerto Rico PFC rating lowered to 'CC'; all Puerto Rico tax-backed debt placed on creditwatch negative.
- Reuters Poll Median 60% chance UK bank rate will have risen by end of Q1 '16.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
- 23:30 Japan Reuters Tankan DI Jul 14-previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- 11:50 Japan BoJ June MPB Meeting Minutes
- 01:30 Australia RBA July Meeting Minutes
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0819 levels and currently trading at 1.0832 levels. It has made session high at 1.0870 and low at 1.0825 levels. The pair rebounded from 1.0829 levels to hit session high at 1.0869, in the early US session. But gains made, slowly faded as the pair retreated back and hit session lows at 1.0825. Greece banks re-opened on Monday and ordered to repay dues it owed to European Central Bank (ECB) worth 4.2 billion euros and 2 billion euros to IMF. Greece cleared its due amount after missing several deadlines in the last three weeks. ECB later in the day said it received bond payment from Greece. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0907. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.0819. Overall trend of this pair remains bearish in the short and medium term.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is supported around 1.5547 levels and currently trading at 1.5557 levels. It has made session high at 1.5606 and low at 1.5547 levels. The cable fell from 1.5584 levels in early US session, it hit support level at 1.5660 and bounced off to hit session high at 1.5608 level. The pair failed to hold on to its bullish run and retreated back to support level at 1.5545. The pair is trading in a very tight range in- between 1.5545 and 1.5627 levels from last week, the further direction of this pair will be determined by the BoE meetings on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5627. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.5545.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is supported around 0.9597 levels and currently trading at 0.9638 levels. It has made session high at 0.9644 and low at 0.9612 levels. The Swiss franc rebounded after hitting the support level at 0.9613, the pair is advanced further, due to stronger dollar boosted by higher bond yields. The pair is all set to test resistance level at 0.9718 in the coming days, as long as the euro declines this pair keeps claiming upside, as there is no important data set to be released this week and US rate hike speculation keeps mounting pressure on this pair. The pair is set to advance further to higher level and overall trend of this pair remains bullish. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5671. To the downside, major support level is located at 0.9612.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is supported around 123.92 levels and currently trading at 124.28 levels. It has made session high at 124.37 and low at 124.16 levels. The pair bounced off after hitting 124.16 levels and hit daily high at 124.38. The pair is trading in a tight range as it failed to advance further amid higher US bond yields, and also Fed Bullard comments that there is 50% chance of rate hike this year. The pair is set to advance once it closes above 124.50 levels, as the speculation mounts of US rate hike this pair will come under pressure and advance further towards 125.00 and later towards 125.50 levels. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 124.46. To the downside, major support level is located at 123.73.
