Market Roundup
•US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% ,0.3% forecast ,0.5% previous
•US Average Weekly Hours (Sep): 34.2 ,34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•US Government Payrolls (Sep): 31.0K, 45.0K previous
•US Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep): -7K , -5K forecast, -27K previous
•US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 254K ,147K forecast, 159K previous
•US Participation Rate (Sep): 62.7%, 62.7% forecast, 62.7% previous
•US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 223K, 125K forecast 114K previous
•US U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep): 7.7% , 7.9%previous
•US Unemployment Rate (Sep): 4.1% , 4.2% forecast , 4.2% previous
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Sep): 54.5, 50.3 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI (Sep): 53.1, 50.3 forecast, 48.2 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 479, 484 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 585, 58 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: EUR/USD fell to a 2-month low Friday after September U.S. payrolls data increased doubts about how deep the Fed's cutting cycle will be.Non-farm payrolls came in at 254k against 140k estimates along with upward revisions to August and July while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.The data likely pleased the Fed after recent rhetoric from the central bank indicated weak job markets were not desired. Investors lowered expectations for Fed cuts. The CME FedWatch tool showed an increased probability for a 25bps cut in November near 95% from near 47% last week.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1004(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1046(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0963(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0943 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined against the dollar on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected in September, leading traders to pare bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again by 50 basis points at its November meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month. Economists polled had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. Improving economic data and more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, in which he pushed back against expectations of continuing hefty rate cuts, has led traders to reduce bets on a 50-basis-point reduction at the Fed's Nov. 6-7 meeting. Those odds fell further after Friday's data. Traders are now pricing in only an 8% chance of a 50-bps rate cut, down from around 31% earlier on Friday and from 53% a week ago, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3148(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3207(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3089(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3012(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data bolstered the greenback, but the move was limited as oil added to its recent gains. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, extended its sharp gains this week as investors feared a wider Middle East conflict could disrupt crude flows. U.S. crude futures were up 1.5% at $74.80 a barrel.Canadian economic activity rebounded in September after contracting in the prior month, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data showed. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 53.1 from 48.2 in August. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3575 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.66 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Sept. 19 at 1.3591. For the week, the currency was down 0.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3557 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3622(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3545 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3508(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Friday after a surprisingly strong jobs report for September led traders to cut bets that the Federal Reserve will make further 50-basis-point rate cuts.The greenback was also set for its best weekly percentage performance against the Japanese yen since 2009 as traders adjusting for a less dovish Fed and a more dovish Bank of Japan sparked a rapid repricing in the currency pair.U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month, beating the 140,000 new jobs that economists polled had anticipated. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly slipped, to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. The dollar gained to 149.02 yen , the highest since Aug. 16. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.93 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.55 (Aug 15th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.95(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Friday as a stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs report allayed growth fears in the world's biggest economy, though they were down on the week as escalating conflicts in the Middle East kept risk-taking in check.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.85 percent.
U.S. stocks closed out Friday's session with solid gains, as a strong payrolls report silenced whispers about the possibility of a rapidly cooling labor market and cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in November.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.81% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.90 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.22% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report poured cold water on expectations for an aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,649.69 per ounce by 01:57 p.m. EDT (1757 GMT), after touching a record high of $2,685.42 last week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2,667.80.
Oil prices rose on Friday and settled with their biggest weekly gains in over a year on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East, although gains were limited as U.S. President Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $78.05 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 67 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $74.38 per barrel.
