Market Roundup
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 0.6%, 0.9% forecast, 1.8% previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 1.6% forecast, -4.0% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, -4.3% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jun) 0.9%, 1.9% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.753%, 2.749% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.424%, 2.437% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.587%, 2.554% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.6%, 1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous
•US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jul) 1.3, 0.0 previous
•US 2-Year Note Auction 4.315%, 4.189% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.945%, 3.835% previous
•US 5-Year Note Auction 4.408%, 4.200% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•06:00 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•04:05 Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as easing Middle East hostilities sent oil prices sharply lower, boosting risk appetite across global markets.Oil prices fell to a one-week low after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes over the weekend, reviving hopes for a de-escalation in their conflict and a resumption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.. The Ifo Institute's survey on Monday showed German business morale improved more than expected in July, driven by significantly stronger expectations.Looking ahead euro zone data schedule includes flash second-quarter GDP, July economic sentiment and consumer confidence, flash inflation, and June unemployment figuresl.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1480(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1391(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1358(Lower BB).
GBP/USD :The pound dipped on Monday as traders digested easing U.S.-Iran tensions and awaited Bank of England policy decision .President Trump said the U.S. is holding "good talks" with Iran after both sides paused strikes, raising hopes for a diplomatic solution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday after inflation came in below the central bank's forecasts in June. Investors are also assessing the fiscal outlook under Britain's new government after Prime Minister Andy Burnham and finance minister John Healey took office last week.Burnham's administration intends to preserve the previous administration's pro-growth approach to the financial services sector including regulation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3376(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3376 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3272(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3222(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as oil prices fell sharply and investors awaited a Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week.Oil, one of Canada's key exports, plunged 7.2% to $82.85 a barrel after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes, boosting hopes of easing tensions and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.The Fed's policy decision is due on Wednesday, with a 62% chance of rates being left unchanged, according to CME FedWatch.Canadian GDP data for May, due on Friday, could offer further clues on the state of the domestic economy. Analysts expect a gain of 0.2%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4245(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4327(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4082(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.40061(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against yen on Monday as on as easing U.S.-Iran tensions supported dollar remain some ground. Oil prices tumbled on Monday after the U.S. paused strikes over the weekend after two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that would de-escalate the conflict and allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz. Japan's heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports leaves the economy highly exposed to supply shocks and volatility in crude oil prices.Traders also remain alert to the risk of Japanese currency intervention, although many believe this week's Bank of Japan policy meeting poses the bigger risk for the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.69 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 164.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.71(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 162.50(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares ended flat on Monday as tech losses, led by ASML, offset gains from easing U.S.-Iran tensions and lower oil prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.30 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.76 percent.
Wall Street ended mixed on Monday as investors awaited earnings from major tech firms while concerns over high oil prices kept Fed rate hike fears alive.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.16% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.15% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.36% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Monday as easing U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices to a one-week low, reducing inflation concerns ahead of this week's Fed decision.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,074.22 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled around 0.2% higher at $4,077.00.
Oil prices fell on Monday to their lowest in over a week as the U.S. paused strikes on Iran, raising hopes for diplomacy and resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell $8.42, or 8.7%, to settle at $88.36 a barrel, the lowest since July 17. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $6.70, or 7.5%, to close at $82.61, the lowest since July 16.
