Market Roundup
• Canada Exports (Aug) 60.58B, 62.46B previous
• Canada Imports (Aug) 66.91B, 66.28B previous
• Canada Trade Balance (Aug) -6.32B,-5.70B forecast,-3.82B previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 5.8%,5.9% previous
• Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Sep) 61.6, 50.0 previous
• Canada Ivey PMI (Sep) 59.8 ,51.2 forecast, 50.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Overall wage income of employees (Aug) 2.6%forecast, 3.4% previous
• 23:30 Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Aug) 3.30% previous
• 23:30 Japan Current Account (Aug) 2.45T forecast, 1.88T previous
• 23:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Sep) 3.7% forecast, 3.6% previous
• 23:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) 3.540T forecast, 2.684T previous
•00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug) -6.0% forecast, – 8,2 % previous
•00:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (Sep) 4 previous
•00:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Aug) -2.6% forecast, 1.1% previous
•01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.75% forecast, 3.00% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 01:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro remained under pressure following the unexpected resignation of France’s Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Monday, raising doubts over President Emmanuel Macron’s fiscal plans. Lecornu and his cabinet stepped down just hours after announcing a new lineup, deepening the political crisis and pushing the euro lower. Lecornu is set to start two days of emergency talks with various parties on Tuesday, after Macron tasked him with finding a solution, setting a Wednesday evening deadline. However, lawmakers across the spectrum expressed confusion over Macron’s strategy, with some suggesting Lecornu’s mandate was mainly a move to buy time, nearly a month after his contested appointment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1734(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1638(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1590(61.8%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened despite the ongoing US government shutdown. With U.S. government data releases still on hiatus, market focus was trained on Fed policymakers.Fed Governor Stephen Miran said a lot of uncertainty that dogged the economy in the first half of 2025 had lifted. However, he said that if the economy does well it doesn't have firm implications for monetary policy, adding that the neutral rate had come down, making policy more restrictive and that there were risks to running restrictive monetary policy.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he was not convinced that a few rate cuts would translate to lower mortgage rates and if the U.S. central bank drastically lowered rates that the economy would be expected to have a burst of high inflation .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3500(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3309(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as Canada’s trade deficit widened more than anticipated and investors digested a White House meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump pledged to treat Canada fairly in talks over U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods but was less committed to a broader North American trade deal including Mexico.Canada’s merchandise trade deficit expanded to C$6.32 billion ($4.53 billion) in August, as exports fell faster in both value and volume than imports rose. Economists had forecast a C$5.55 billion deficit, compared with a revised C$3.82 billion shortfall in the previous month.Oil prices, a key Canadian export, rose 0.1% to $61.73 per barrel. A smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase in November offset concerns of a potential supply glut.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3813 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3908(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3870 (SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar climbed to seven month high on Tuesday as concerns about the fiscal outlook in Japan weighed on yen. Takaichi, who is expected to become Japan's next prime minister, has pledged to boost the Japanese economy with aggressive spending and has been critical of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes.Investors wait for details on how Takaichi will shape her government, Japanese authorities may step in with verbal intervention to temper the yen’s recent slide.The results of the weekend LDP leadership vote could lead to significant policy changes in Japan. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Tuesday that currency moves should stay stable and reflect economic fundamentals, as the yen continued to weaken. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.18(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.30(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 149.91(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities fell on Tuesday, weighed down by healthcare and banking stocks, though a luxury-driven rebound in France limited regional losses after Monday’s political turmoil.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.04 percent.
U.S. stocks slipped on Tuesday as investors, lacking fresh economic data due to the government shutdown, turned to Fed commentary and secondary indicators for guidance on economic weakness and policy direction.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.20% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.38% percent, Nasdaq settled downby 0.67% percent.
Commodities Recap
U.S. gold futures climbed above $4,000 per ounce for the first time Tuesday, fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut and continued safe-haven demand amid the government shutdown.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $4,004.4, after hitting a high of $4,014.6.Spot gold was up 0.6% to $3,985.82 per ounce as of 01:48 p.m. EDT (17:48 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $3,990.85 earlier in the session.
Oil prices held steady Tuesday as investors balanced a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output rise in November with concerns over a possible supply glut.
Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $65.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $61.73.
