Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.531%,2.593% previous
•French French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.055%,3.071% previous
•French French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.778%,2.824% previous
•US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Oct) -3.0 ,-9.0 previous
•US Jobs/applications ratio (Sep) 1.24,1.23 forecast,1.23 previous
•US Jobs Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.4%,2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro firmed on Monday as investors geared up for a busy schedule of crucial economic data releases. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos' speech is due later in the day. Sweden's preliminary GDP figures and September retail sales are set to be released on Tuesday.On Wednesday, the euro zone will reveal preliminary flash GDP, consumer confidence, and economic sentiment data, while Germany will release its consumer price figures, flash GDP, and employment data. Spain’s estimated GDP, Italy's preliminary GDP, and the British budget are also due on Wednesday.CPI data for the euro zone, France, and Italy will be released on Thursday. Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher but struggled ahead of key psychological resistance by 1.30 as the market awaited the upcoming release of the UK budget on Oct. 30 and then the Nov. 5 U.S. election, though bears have abandoned recent tests of support by 1.29. The path ahead for the UK economy is open to risks as forecasts indicate inflation remaining steady, just above the BoE's 2% target, and sterling STIR futures are pricing a further 41bp of rate cuts by the Dec. 19 MPC meeting, hinting at slowing UK growth.If inflation persists and the economy fails to rebound, then the policy outlook could become cloudy for financial markets, including sterling.Adding to the uncertainty is the upcoming U.S. election. If Trump were to win, investors expect that to keep U.S. rates and the dollar high, which could exert downward pressure on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3018(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3083(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2925(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency held steady versus its US counterpart on Monday as investors evaluated the prospects of Donald Trump returning to the White House as market bets favored the former president's reelection. The election for U.S. president is expected to be close. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, was leading Republican Donald Trump nationally by a marginal 46% to 43%, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. Election Day in the U.S. is Nov. 5. This week's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index, along with the country's third-quarter GDP data and non farm payrolls report could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy move next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3909 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3972 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3824 (Oct 25th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3817 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against the yen on Monday but gave up ground after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing in Sunday's election, raising uncertainty over the path for policy and the economy.Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The LDP previously held 247 seats and Komeito held 32.The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index closed higher on Monday as gains across most sectors outweighed the weakness in energy stocks on a slide in oil prices, with investors looking for crucial economic data and big-ticket U.S. tech earnings scheduled for later in the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.25 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.79 percent.
Wall Street closed higher on Monday ahead of a packed week of earnings from megacap companies and the final stretch before the Nov. 5 presidential election, while sentiment improved after energy supplies were not disrupted by weekend developments in the Middle East.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.65% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.27% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.26% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold's record rally took a breather on Monday, as U.S. Treasury yields and dollar gained the upper hand, while investors awaited a series of U.S. economic data due this week for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,743.31 an ounce by 1:55 p.m. ET (1755 GMT). Bullion hit a record high of $2,758.37 last Wednesday.U.S. gold futures settled almost unchanged at $2,755.9.
Oil prices tumbled 6% on Monday, or more than $4 a barrel, after Saturday's retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran's military bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, not disrupting energy supplies.
Brent futures settled at $71.42 a barrel, down $4.63 or 6.09%. WTI U.S. crude futures finished at $67.38 a barrel, $4.40 or 6.13%.
