Market Roundup
•US Trade Balance (Jun) -73.30B, -73.00B forecast, -77.60B previous
•US Exports (Jun) 314.70B, 317.70B previous
•US Imports (Jun) 388.00B, 395.30B previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Jun) 3.86B, 3.00B forecast, 3.70B previous
•Canada Imports (Jun) 73.63B, 73.49B previous
•Canada Exports (Jun) 77.49B, 77.19B previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 8.7%, 8.3% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.5, 52.2 forecast, 53.0 previous
•US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) 7.359M, 7.440M forecast, 7.537M previous
•US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -1.1% previous
•US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Jun) -0.4%, 2.0% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jun) 0.7%, 0.6% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Aug) 45.1, 47.5 forecast, 45.5 previous
•US All Car Sales (Jul) 2.70M, 2.69M previous
•US All Truck Sales (Jul) 13.62M, 13.87M previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 5.9%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:00 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Jul) -16.8 previous
•00:00 Australia AIG Construction Index (Jul) -38.1 previous
•00:00 Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jul) 52.60 forecast, 50.40 previous
•00:00 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Jul) 53.0 forecast, 50.5 previous
•00:30 Japan Overall Wage Income of Employees (Jun) 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•00:30 Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Jun) 2.90% previous
•01:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul) 51.9 forecast, 52.2 previous
•01:30 Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jul) 53.10 forecast, 52.80 previous
•02:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) -1.0% previous
•02:45 China Caixin Services PMI (Jul) 53.7 forecast, 54.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar but gains were limited on Tuesday as concerns persisted that Middle Eastern supply could remain vulnerable, with a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran conflict still appearing elusive.Markets have repeatedly swung between optimism and pessimism since the conflict began in late February, as both sides have struggled to reach a mutually acceptable resolution.Looking ahead, investors awaited awaiting a series of U.S. labour market reports this week for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Key data releases include job openings later on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : The pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited greater clarity on potential U.S.-Iran peace talks while remaining alert to the risk of further intervention in the Japanese yen, which could trigger broader volatility across global financial markets.Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place or had been planned, prompting a modest rebound in oil prices. Brent crude rose around 3% on Tuesday to $86.10 a barrel.Investor attention is also firmly on Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July, a key release that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path if the labour market data surprises to the upside or downside. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as oil prices fell and despite data that showed Canada posting a fourth-straight month of trade surpluses.Canada's trade surplus hit a four-year high of C$3.86 billion ($2.75 billion) in June, when a weaker Canadian dollar helped inflate the value of exports and imports. Analysts had forecast a surplus of C$3 billion.Separate data on Tuesday showed that Canada's manufacturing sector expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than four years as rising domestic activity boosted production and new orders, but weak international demand raised doubt over the sustainability of the increase.The price of oil CLc1, one of Canada's major exports, fell 5.7% to $75.80 a barrel after comments by Qatari and U.S. officials raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war that could improve oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4075(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4182(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3962(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher but gains were limited on Tuesday as investors remained wary of further yen-buying intervention.Traders continue to monitor for any signs of Japan-U.S. coordinated foreign exchange intervention.The Japanese yen surged as much as 5% over the previous three trading sessions after Japan confirmed it had carried out a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention with the United States on Friday.Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Tuesday that the impact of higher costs stemming from the Middle East conflict has yet to significantly feed through to consumer prices, suggesting inflationary pressures remain contained for now. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.3` (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.88.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.25(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a record close on Tuesday, driven by strength in the technology sector and solid corporate earnings, while declining oil prices added to the positive market mood.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.63 percent.
U.S. stocks rallied to record closing highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow lifted by upbeat results from AI-linked firms such as Caterpillar and Palantir.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.71 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.79% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.59% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose 1% on Tuesday as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further U.S. rate hikes, while investors awaited more signals on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,086.36 per ounce by 2:20 p.m. EDT (1820 GMT), while U.S gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $4,152.60.
Oil prices tumbled more than 5% on Tuesday as optimism over a possible diplomatic resolution to the Iran war increased following comments from Qatari and U.S. officials, easing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures fell $4.41, or 5.3%, to settle at $79.36 a barrel, the lowest since July 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down $4.57, or 5.7%, at $75.77 a barrel, also a three-week low.
