Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 97.9 (+0.06%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.05%, Franc +0.09%, Yen -0.24%, GBP -0.23%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.17%, Franc +0.24%, Yen +0.41%, GBP +0.73%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.098

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support                      

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09            

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132

Economic release today –

• Current account balance came at €23.6 billion. ECB kept interest rates on hold and the press conference is under way.

Commentary –

• The euro is awaiting ECB press conference. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. However, in the short run, Euro might ride higher.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.226

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.2, Short term – 1.2

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.32, Medium term – 1.25, Short term – 1.24

Economic release today –

• Retail sales grew by 4.1 percent y/y in September, up 4 percent excluding fuel.

Commentary –

• The pound continues to struggle despite better than expected economic data as Brexit talk weighs. However, retail sales were weaker today. In the short term, we expect the pound to drop towards 1.2 area. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 103.6

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• The yen is drifting around 104 area. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.988

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc is likely to continue moving in line with euro. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.