This chart is from St. Louis Fed’s Economic dashboard that shows the year on year percentage change in Domestic private investment since 1948. Since then, this economic gauge has declined below zero 14 times and in 11 instances US economy dipped into recession.

After recovering in 2010, this gauge dipped below zero in the first quarter of 2016 and was able to get back above zero mark in the fourth quarter., when it grew by 1.52 percent, after dipping to -2.05 percent in the second quarter of last year. It was only in 1965 and in 1985 that the dip did not cause a recession.

Many in the market are calling for a cautious attitude with regard to this gauge.

Given the level of political and policy uncertainties prevailing around the world, coupled with higher inflation and yields, a possibility of a looming recession can’t be ruled out.