Sweden's domestic inflation (excluding electricity) bottomed in mid-2014 and has been rising gradually since then. Domestic inflation the key to Sweden future outlook and the key question is whether the upturn will continue this year.
Labour market situation is tight and the expected upturn in domestic inflation is not sufficient for total inflation to reach 2%, as imported inflation is set to decline. the reason being wage increases will probably not rise as fast as it has in historical situations with a tight labour market.
"We expect that the gradual upward trend will continue, but not enough for overall inflation to stabilise at 2%. Moreover, it will be a bumpy road with many surprises, with the tricky January reading being no exception. We see the January CPI down by 0.6% m/m." said Nordea Bank in a report.


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