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What to watch for in FOMC?

 

Federal open market committee to hold monetary policy meeting this Wednesday. Decision is to be announced at 18:00 GMT, followed by press conference at 18:30 GMT, tomorrow.

  • Traders and investors primary focus will be on the key word "patient", as FED will be providing indications before any rate increase. Disappearance of the word though a bit unlikely given possible rate hike in June will be very hawkish and may result in further rally is US dollar and bond yields.
  • However other views like the economic activity pace which was described as solid in the last statement.
  • Another point to look at will be the unanimity among the participants. A change towards dovish would hurt the dollar more but S&P 500 may rejoice.
  • Forecast is an important aspect of the policy. Last FOMC projected growth to reach between 2.6%-3% and unemployment to 5.2% by 2016. Inflation forecast is the main area to focus on. Previous forecast was for 1-1.6% for 2015 and 1.7%-2% for next year. Statement would be read as dovish or hawkish depending on the tilt in forecast.
  • For the bond yields one of the most vital is median forecast of FED funds rate by market participants. Last projection was a rise to 1.125% by December, 2.5% by 2016 and 3.6% by 2017. Last FOMC saw a reduction by 25 basis points for the near term and more could be on its way at current meeting. If not would be very hawkish.
  • Press conference by chair Yellen is to be watched closely for further indication on policy moves and her reactions to various asking.

Dollar index is trading at 99.5, down 0.15% for the day.

  • Market Data
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