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What do major investment banks and hedge funds say about Brexit catastrophic effects?

The global recession that began in 2008 was bad around the world, but it was much worse in countries that had adopted Europe’s common currency, the euro. The unemployment rate shot up above 20 pct in countries like Greece and Spain, triggering a massive debt crisis. Seven years after the recession began, Spain and Greece are still suffering from unemployment rates above 20 pct.

GBP against other majors, such as, GBPJPY tumbled from Friday’s highs of 160.117 to the current 136.559 levels (or 14.71%), GBPAUD 1.9670 to the current 1.80.13 levels (i.e. 8.42%), while GBPCAD struggling at 1.73560 levels when it dropped from 1.9127 (9.23%). EUR gained massively against GBP from day lows of 0.7598 to the current 0.8315 levels (or 12.39%).

As a result of cyclical effects investments are suffering phenomenally, but “Short-term trading revenues may even go up as volatility increases and volumes increase,” analysts led by Michael Helsby at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

However, “erratic volatility and longer-term uncertainty will probably offset these gains and hurt earnings,” analysts at UBS Group AG led by Daniele Brupbacher wrote in a note to clients.

Some analysts caution bad trades may surface through trading ‘bombshell’.

“Investment bank trading books could see some bombs go off as positions are exposed, albeit we would hope any sensible traders would have already hedged their positions for a Brexit scenario,” Gary Greenwood, an analyst at Shore Capital, wrote in a note to clients.

“The banks have been operating with lower levels of trading inventory in the past, leaving them less vulnerable to large write-downs, “gapping” movements in credit spreads could still hurt trading revenues,” JP Morgan analyst Kian Abouhossein mentioned.

Barclays Plc, whose investment bank has been reshaping for almost a decade under three successive CEOs, fell as much as 11.5 pct in London trading on Monday, extending losses after its biggest drop in more than seven years on Friday.

Its shares were cut by at least four brokers, including a sell rating at Citigroup.

Deutsche Bank AG, Europe’s largest securities firm, slid as much as 8 pct.

Stateside, investment banks didn’t do much better with Morgan Stanley down 10 pct on last weekend.

“The future structure, profitability and, indeed, existence of Barclays’s investment bank is called into question,” Jefferies’s Dickerson wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

“We expect a costly impact on the investment bank from the referendum result, stemming not just from reduced debt capital markets revenue, but also costs associated with bulking up subsidiaries located in EU jurisdictions such as Frankfurt and Dublin.”

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