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UniCredit: FX Strategy

Quotes from Unicredit
 

  • CAD: We think the BoC will stay on hold today. However, the signs of weakness from China will likely lead the BoC to further easing its policy at some point.
    In its latest monetary policy report, the BoC pointed out the possible devastating consequences that unchanged monetary policy could have on the Canadian real economy if economic data become more negative. We do not think that USD-CAD has peaked yet.

  • GBP: We remain constructive on sterling in the medium term, as economic data have beenbuilding positive momentum over the last couple of months, and we think when the Fed starts hiking rates at some point, the BoE will soon follow.

  • CEEMEA:  The National Bank of Poland is likely to decide on a 25bp rate cut today. However, with the move fully priced in (as well as an additional 25bp cut at the June meeting), there is some scope for moderation of easing expectations, especially if the NBP were to sound more cautious.
    We would not be surprised to see the NBP advocate a stronger PLN, as both bank governor Marek Belka and finance minister Mateusz Szczurek have done recently, given the unresolved problem of CHF-denominated mortgages.
    PLN-HUF could move higher from here, with the cross having tracked the relative short-term money market differential (FRA 3X6) spreads quite nicely. We remain short TRY-PLN. We initiated the trade at 1.4900 (spot now 1.4705) targeting a move to 1.4350 and with a stop placed at 1.5090.

 

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