Unadjusted US CPI-U likely also dipped in September

Analysis suggests that before seasonal adjustment the CPI-U fell by 0.2% to 237.767 last month - the lowest reading since April. Looking ahead, underlying consumer prices for goods and services generally soften during the fall quarter. As a result, traders and investors should be prepared for significantly lower percentage changes in the unadjusted CPI-U than those of the seasonally adjusted headline gauge. 

"Recent adjustments to our petroleum analysts' price projections have prompted us to update our CPI-U forecasts through 2016. Our updated estimates call for a 0.3% rise to 235.476 over calendar 2015 - down from last month's 0.5% forecast - and a slightly larger 2.4% increase (was 2.3%) to 241.191 next year" says Societe Generale.

The CPI excluding food and energy components, meanwhile, is now expected to end the year 2.1% above its December 2014 level and climb by an additional 2.7% over the course of 2016.