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USD-TRY likely at 2.75 levels by year-end

Thursday, July 16, 2015 7:29 AM UTC

Turkish currency is the one of the best performances around Emerging Market over the past month. Turkish lira gained 3.6% against the USD; in combination with the RUB's near-4% loss over the same period, this was evidently a function of developments surrounding Iran and the oil price.

However, according to Commerzbank, the lira's performance was helped by

1) Turkey's own domestic politics being on the sidelines through this period
2) Fed rate fears moderated somewhat because of softer US data and Greek developments

Commerzbank states, "Assuming that a September Fed rate hike occurs, and a newly established coalition government goes through its teething problems, we see upward pressure return to USD-TRY; CBT is eventually expected to respond with 150bps of rate hikes before year-end. If our view proves correct, it should be reflected in overshooting of USD-TRY in the interim, but stabilisation at 2.75 levels by year-end."

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USD-TRY likely at 2.75 levels by year-end

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