USD Loses Shine: Soft Labor Market and Stalling Consumer Spending Drag USDCHF Lower

USDCHF lost its shine after weak US economic data. Currently trading at 0.79464, it reached an intraday low of 0.79464.

The November 2025 U.S. jobs report revealed a weakening labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 64,000—well below the 90–100k needed to match population growth and signaling slowing hiring momentum—while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.6% due to a modest increase in unemployed individuals amid flat labor force participation, reflecting weak demand rather than new entrants. Wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month for an annual pace around 3.8%, down from cycle peaks above 5% and aligning with cooling inflation toward the Fed's 2% target, potentially supporting continued or accelerated rate cuts in 2026 if activity softens further. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare and government sectors, while manufacturing, transportation, and temporary services saw ongoing or deepening losses, typical of late-cycle trends. Meanwhile, October 2025 retail sales were unexpectedly flat month-over-month, missing forecasts and indicating a consumer spending pause amid rising living costs and tariff impacts on items like autos and electronics; core retail sales showed some resilience but fell short of expectations, underscoring caution despite year-over-year gains. Complementing this, the preliminary ADP NER Pulse reported private job gains averaging 16,250 per week for the four weeks ending November 29, 2025, marking a recovery from mid-November weekly losses of about 9,250 and stabilization after the full November ADP's 32,000 net job cut, driven by small-business and sectoral challenges. Together with weakening PMIs and delayed official data, these signals point to a softening labor market and apprehensive consumers during holiday spending, likely prompting a more cautious Federal Reserve approach to future rate cuts, with the overall cooling—but not collapsing—conditions supportive of accommodative policy and potential medium-term USD weakness against risk assets like equities and crypto.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness

The pair is trading below the 55-EMA, the 200-EMA, and the 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.8000; any break above targets  0.8040/0.8090/0.8150/0.82180.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7920; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7865/0.7800.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  bearish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8000 with SL around 0.8040 for a TP of 0.7865.