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USD/INR likely to rise above 65.0 from May, retreat post June’s FOMC meeting: Scotiabank

The USD/INR currency pair is expected to rise above 65.0 from May till June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and to retreat post the Federal Reserve’s June gathering. The pair is likely to consolidate at around 64.5 for now due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) two-way operations.

Foreign investors have pulled out funds from Indian equity markets after the RBI unexpectedly raised its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00 percent on April 6, leading to a slightly weaker INR that underperform all regional peers except the KRW suffered from hovering geopolitical tensions. The 64.16 handle is now serving as a support level for USD/INR.

Since February 1, the INR has rallied on the back of the Union Budget with fiscal prudence, the RBI’s neutral monetary policy stance and increasing hopes for further economic reforms post the BJP’s victory in the UP assembly election. In the meantime, a broadly weakening dollar helped shore up the INR as well.

"We stay watching the result of the French presidential election that could be a game changer and are awaiting US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s regulation relaxation due in June," Scotiabank commented in its latest research report.

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Fintech Week Chicago

April 28 21:00 UTC Released

MXFiscal Balance (Pesos)*

Actual

340.61 bln MXN

Forecast

Previous

-1.93 bln MXN

April 28 21:00 UTC Released

CNFiscal Balance (Pesos)*

Actual

340.61 bln MXN

Forecast

Previous

-1.93 bln MXN

April 30 01:00 UTC 572572m

CNNBS Non-Mfg PMI*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

55.10 %

April 30 01:00 UTC 572572m

CNNBS Manufacturing PMI*

Actual

Forecast

51.6 bln $

Previous

51.8 bln $

April 30 23:30 UTC 19221922m

AUAIG Manufacturing Index

Actual

Forecast

Previous

57.5 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 19521952m

KRExport Growth Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

15.3 %

Previous

13.6 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 19521952m

KRImport Growth Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

21.0 %

Previous

27.7 %

May 1 00:00 UTC 19521952m

KRTrade Balance Prelim*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

6.27 bln $

May 1 00:30 UTC 19821982m

USNikkei Mfg PMI

Actual

Forecast

Previous

52.8 %

May 1 00:30 UTC 19821982m

JPNikkei Mfg PMI

Actual

Forecast

Previous

52.8 bln $

Fintech Week Chicago
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