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USD/INR likely to rise above 65.0 from May, retreat post June’s FOMC meeting: Scotiabank

The USD/INR currency pair is expected to rise above 65.0 from May till June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and to retreat post the Federal Reserve’s June gathering. The pair is likely to consolidate at around 64.5 for now due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) two-way operations.

Foreign investors have pulled out funds from Indian equity markets after the RBI unexpectedly raised its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00 percent on April 6, leading to a slightly weaker INR that underperform all regional peers except the KRW suffered from hovering geopolitical tensions. The 64.16 handle is now serving as a support level for USD/INR.

Since February 1, the INR has rallied on the back of the Union Budget with fiscal prudence, the RBI’s neutral monetary policy stance and increasing hopes for further economic reforms post the BJP’s victory in the UP assembly election. In the meantime, a broadly weakening dollar helped shore up the INR as well.

"We stay watching the result of the French presidential election that could be a game changer and are awaiting US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s regulation relaxation due in June," Scotiabank commented in its latest research report.

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January 19 15:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Annualized

Actual

4.5 %

Forecast

Previous

3.3 %

January 19 15:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Index

Actual

150.3 %

Forecast

Previous

147.6 %

January 21 02:00 UTC 14981498m

PHGDP YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

6.9 0

January 21 02:00 UTC 14981498m

PHGDP QQ

Actual

Forecast

Previous

1.3 0

January 21 21:00 UTC 26382638m

KRPPI Growth YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.1 %

January 21 21:00 UTC 26382638m

KRPPI Growth

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-0.1 %

January 21 23:00 UTC 27582758m

JPReuters Tankan DI

Actual

Forecast

Previous

27 k

January 22 07:00 UTC 32383238m

NOIndus Confidence

Actual

Forecast

Previous

2 0

January 22 08:00 UTC 32983298m

TWJobless Rate

Actual

Forecast

Previous

3.69 0

January 22 08:00 UTC 32983298m

TWExport Orders YY

Actual

Forecast

Previous

11.6 0

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