US – May IP data may signal manufacturing starting to turn a corner

Depressed by side-effects of the oil-price drop, the rising US dollar and mixed global demand, the US industrial sector has had a few rough months: industrial production (IP) was up only 1.9% y/y in April, compared with a two-year average of 3.6%. 

The latest ISM manufacturing survey showed tentative signs of recovery, which may be reflected in May's data (Monday, 08:30 ET): the headline is seen up 0.5% (a touch more than consensus of 0.3%), from -0.3%, and the same gain for manufacturing production. 

At Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed may dismiss some of the manufacturing softness to focus on the more resilient private consumption picture (illustrated by a solid May retail sales report). Monday also brings the Empire (New York) businesses' and NAHB home-builder surveys.