US vehicle sales leaves Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged

US sales of light weight vehicles totaled 17.7mn units (saar) in August, according to data available from WardsAuto and BEA seasonal adjustment factors, above our forecast (17.4mn) and consensus expectations (17.3mn). 

Auto sales ticked down 1.1% m/m to 7.5mn (saar) but this sequential decline was offset by light truck sales, which were up 3.4% to 10.2mn (saar).  Together, 17.7mn in annualized unit sales represents a 1.4% m/m gain. 

As one of the earliest and most reliable indicators of goods consumption, we take positive signal from stronger-than-expected August vehicle sales. Consumer sentiment has moderated a bit in recent months as financial market volatility and concerns over international growth have increased. 

However, these data indicate that consumption should hold up despite these factors. Better household income, employment prospects and lagged wealth effects are seen as driving private consumption growth of 2.5% in the second half of this year.

"The stronger-than-expected print for August sales left the estimate of overall Q3 consumption growth unchanged at 2.8% after rounding. Strong sales likely also reflect better business demand for motor vehicles, the estimate of equipment investment rose modestly following the data. On net, Q3 GDP tracking estimate was unchanged at 2.6% after rounding", says Barclays.