US unemployment rate to decline in June

The labour market is nearing full employment which should mark an inflection point on wage growth. The ECI survey is already showing evidence of a buildup of wage pressures, but the monthly data on average hourly earnings tends to lag. 

The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%, which would reverse the unexpected uptick in May and put it back at the cyclical low first registered in April, says Societe Generale. 

Despite the bullish outlook for wage growth, the June data is expecetd to be subdued, with AHE rising by just 0.1% m/m.

"The yoy growth rate will decline from 2.3% to 2.2%", forecasts Societe Generale.