After data from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed last week that the US economy expanded at a much slower pace than anticipated, the Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDPNow’ model is projecting a growth of 4.3 percent annualized rate in the second quarter. According to BEA data, the US economy grew at a 0.7 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the slowest pace in three years. However, a large part of that is cyclical and seasonal. Historically speaking, the US economy grows at the weakest pace in the first quarter and performs much better in the second and the third quarter. Last year, the economy grew by 0.8 percent in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the 0.7 percent growth was higher than GDPNow projection of 0.5 percent.

While Wall Street forecasters are forecasting a growth of 2.7 percent in the second quarter, GDPNow is projecting 4.3 percent as of 1st May. However, one shouldn’t get overly excited as it is just a little more than a month in the second quarter and the GDPNow projection often gets revised based on incoming data.