US payroll employment growth likely eased in January, but remains strong at start of 2016

US payroll employment growth is expected to have slowed down in January as non-agricultural worries created around 245,000 net new jobs. The US had recorded a rise of 292,000 in December.  Many factors indicate a downward shift in hiring in January from the 284,000-per-month clip set in Q4. Initial jobless claims averaged 282,000 during the five weeks to the January establishment period. There was a modest rise in the pace of pink-slipping.

Meanwhile, the unemployed people at present might be finding it difficult to find work as the number of persons on regular state benefits rolls increased 73,000 between canvasses. The diffusion index of job growth throughout the industries surveyed by the BLS reached an eight-month high of 66.2% during Q4 2015. This signals that any slowdown in payroll growth is expected to be limited. The Aruoba-Diebold Scotti (ADS) Business Conditions Index rose in the five weeks, but is still lower than the zero mark that is associated with average real business conditions.